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I would like to know why I would lose a level after a game that I had just gotten experience on?

  • 12.05.2007 7:19 AM PDT
Subject: In depth explanation of the Halo 3 skill ranking system.
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yeah i dont like the ranking system in halo 3 at all. its bull actually i have been at a 49 for a while now.... ended up winin 22 games in a ROW yes 22 an i didnt rank up to my 50 ..... so i did also end up leveling down to a 48 after i lost ONLY 4 games in a row..... and for some reason i cant get my 49 again an its pissin me off.... halo 2 rankin system was better in a sence, for people who were actually talented at the geme. but halo 3, its not all about skill which kinda sucks but i will get it soon...... i hope

  • 12.05.2007 10:21 AM PDT

Posted by: sesquipadelian
i am not demanding or expecting anything, but i am curious. my guess (and this is mere conjecture) is that streakiness is not a factor in the ranking system. you and the thread creator seem to understand the system completely and can grasp how different elements of the trueskill system affect ranks in different ways, so i am eager to know if either of you have any concrete reasons to suppose that streakiness is a factor.

OK, so there was a discussion about winning and losing streaks affecting sigma/skill. So, at that time I decided to email MS about it and ask. As it turns out, in the Xbox Live TrueSkill system, it DOES NOT take streaks in to account. Now, we know Bungie uses a modified version of TrueSkill so we can't say with 100% certainty one way or another but still this is useful info.

Here is the email response I received:
TrueSkill as used on Xbox Live stores one mu and one sigma value for each game, game mode; as such, it only takes into account the current game but never considers a streak of wins. BTW, we are currently attending the NIPS conference where we present a paper and an analysis on the game of Chess were we do take whole streaks of wins and losses into account!


Best wishes,

Ralf Herbrich

  • 12.05.2007 11:53 AM PDT

Posted by: pissed of gamer
yeah i dont like the ranking system in halo 3 at all. its bull actually i have been at a 49 for a while now.... ended up winin 22 games in a ROW yes 22 an i didnt rank up to my 50 ..... so i did also end up leveling down to a 48 after i lost ONLY 4 games in a row..... and for some reason i cant get my 49 again an its pissin me off.... halo 2 rankin system was better in a sence, for people who were actually talented at the geme. but halo 3, its not all about skill which kinda sucks but i will get it soon...... i hope
What gamertag did this happen on? I checked the one you have linked and you did get to 49 in Team Slayer and you did drop to 48, but other then that it doesn't match what you've said at all.

How is Halo 2's system better for "talanted" players? Also you say Halo 3's system isn't all about skill. In what way?



[Edited on 12.05.2007 11:58 AM PST]

  • 12.05.2007 11:54 AM PDT
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I'm no mathematician, but I actually understood that. XD

  • 12.05.2007 8:29 PM PDT
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Is it still true if you beat them when the opposing team has 25 or lower you get double the exp?

  • 12.05.2007 8:52 PM PDT

Posted by: UntouchableHero
Is it still true if you beat them when the opposing team has 25 or lower you get double the exp?
That has never been the case, even in Halo 2. So no.

  • 12.05.2007 11:47 PM PDT
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quick question

howcome on my bungie Halo 3 account it says that My next promotion willbe at 500 Exp/Highest Skill 45 but on halo 3 it says next promotion will be at 600 Exp? Which one is correct?

  • 12.06.2007 12:58 PM PDT
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Very in depth, but now my head hurts.

  • 12.06.2007 3:38 PM PDT
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Eh... I could win 7 games in a row and be the top scorer with least amount of deaths in each game, but i still havent gone up any lvls... y does bungi h8 me?

  • 12.06.2007 3:52 PM PDT

.(``)(``)
..(oO) < O'rly?
.(,,)(,,)
(,,,)(,,,)

this is a very good and detailed description of the "skill" system and i think i know a bit more about it now, although it was a bit confusing.
if i got it right the sigma - value goes up by winning streaks while Mu steadily goes up for each win.
the sigma value controls how much your skill will decrease or increase for each win or loss but what does the Mu do? i didnt rly catch that...

  • 12.07.2007 5:13 AM PDT
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Do people with lower exp. gain skill points faster than people with high exp.?

[Edited on 12.07.2007 5:30 AM PST]

  • 12.07.2007 5:29 AM PDT

Posted by: Zlotty
this is a very good and detailed description of the "skill" system and i think i know a bit more about it now, although it was a bit confusing.
if i got it right the sigma - value goes up by winning streaks while Mu steadily goes up for each win.
the sigma value controls how much your skill will decrease or increase for each win or loss but what does the Mu do? i didnt rly catch that...

Well, supposedly winning streaks are not taken in to account when the system calculates your new sigma value. The skill displayed is your "conservative" skill. MU is your real skill. Sigma is the amount of uncertainty about your skill. The other variable, K, is the factor of conservativeness set by Bungie.

So the formula from the first post is your displayed skill = MU - (K * Sigma)

Sigma is always decreasing. When you start it is high and as you play it is lowered. The idea is, the more you play, the more the system dials in your true skill. Initially, the system matches you against players who it is sure about to gage your performance. If you win, it keeps your uncertainty (sigma) higher. The system decides who is most likely to win prior to every match and if you perform predictable (winning when you should and losing when you should) your sigma is decreased. If you play outside of how the system has predicted (winning against higher level players) it keeps your sigma higher. There really is no way to get your sigma back up to a high level. Once you've played enough and it's low, it takes a large amount of wins OR losses to move skill levels.

  • 12.07.2007 6:34 AM PDT

Posted by: Stian1003
Do people with lower exp. gain skill points faster than people with high exp.?

No, the EXP is used for your Military Ranking and not used for determining skill.

  • 12.07.2007 6:35 AM PDT

Posted by: Project NHK
Eh... I could win 7 games in a row and be the top scorer with least amount of deaths in each game, but i still havent gone up any lvls... y does bungi h8 me?

If you have played enough games in a playlist and the system is certain about your rank, it will take a large number of wins to gain skill (level), You must also win against equally or higher skilled opponents. Winning against lower level opponents will not move you up. Also, don't forget that your individual performance does not matter AT ALL. Only winning or losing.

  • 12.07.2007 6:39 AM PDT

Posted by: ElysiumAvatar
quick question

howcome on my bungie Halo 3 account it says that My next promotion willbe at 500 Exp/Highest Skill 45 but on halo 3 it says next promotion will be at 600 Exp? Which one is correct?

Actually they both are. If you get a level 45 and 500 EXP, you will got up to a Brigadier OR if you stay below a level 45 and get 600 EXP you will Colonel Grade 2. Bnet displays both and in-game only displays one.

  • 12.07.2007 6:42 AM PDT
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Posted by: Project NHK
Eh... I could win 7 games in a row and be the top scorer with least amount of deaths in each game, but i still havent gone up any lvls... y does bungi h8 me?

Because, clearly, you do not know how to read.

  • 12.07.2007 1:11 PM PDT

~~Lieutenant Chaise~~

Ok, I think I understand that part, but what about this. I'm going to use an example here and say you need 300 exp to be promoted to Commander Grade 2, but 250 exp to be promoted to Colonel Grade 1. If the exp needed for a total differnet rank is lower then the exp needed for another grade of a lower rank, then is it possible to get to get that next grade of the lower rank, even if you have the exp to be promoted to the next different rank?

  • 12.07.2007 1:13 PM PDT

Posted by: Lt Chaise
Ok, I think I understand that part, but what about this. I'm going to use an example here and say you need 300 exp to be promoted to Commander Grade 2, but 250 exp to be promoted to Colonel Grade 1. If the exp needed for a total differnet rank is lower then the exp needed for another grade of a lower rank, then is it possible to get to get that next grade of the lower rank, even if you have the exp to be promoted to the next different rank?

I think I understand but here is how it works. For example, you would need 250 EXP AND a Highest Skill of 40 to get the next rank. If you don't get the skill of 40 then you just get Grade increases like Grade 2 and so on.

  • 12.07.2007 1:27 PM PDT
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so it's finalized....the system really is screwed up. sorry but when someone wins12 games in a row, and goes up one...and his friend who is close to the same xp and s ame rank originally goes up FOURTEEN... it's bogus.

  • 12.07.2007 4:43 PM PDT
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If someone could give me an explanation on my following problem i wuold greatly appreciate it:

I'm not here to complain about the ranking system-- i just want my question answered.

Me and 2 friends created BRAND NEW gamertags. We played about 20 social games winning all 20. Then we entered Team Slayer and played 9 games leveling up to level 10. So far we a re 30/30 (9/9) in ranked. This may seem unbelieveable but you can Check my earliest recent games and add them up. We won 50-100 games in a row in Team Slayer and didn't go up to an 11. Like i said i don't care about this i just was hoping someone could shed some insight on this. (It just seems a little rediculous...if Trueskill thinks our skill level was too good for level 10(we won 50+ games in a row) then why wouldn't it level us up higher quicker to where other players had the same amount of Sigma or Mu or whatever??? It just doesn't make any sense. Anyways free EXP.

  • 12.07.2007 5:01 PM PDT

Posted by: RazorBladeFury
so it's finalized....the system really is screwed up. sorry but when someone wins12 games in a row, and goes up one...and his friend who is close to the same xp and s ame rank originally goes up FOURTEEN... it's bogus.
Please post the gamertags involved and when this happend and I'll take a look. Odds are though this happend for a very good reason and has nothing to do with any flaws in the system. If you've read the original post you should have a good idea why this happens. If you need some clarification just ask. If you just disagree with it, well I won't argue against you. Your entitled to your opinion, but if it happend for the reasons I think it did then I disagree.

**EDIT**
Your name is a valid gamertag so I assume that's you. Leveling did happen as I would expect. Your friend got to his 27 much easier then you did. His record was full of wins and he never struggled. As a result wins are still going to move him quickly. You on the other hand had your ups and downs. It took you much longer so in order to move up you need to win more consistently for a longer period of time. At this point you won't be skipping multiple levels at a time like your friend. This behavior is by design and certainly not a flaw. You may disagree with it but that's how it's supposed to work.

[Edited on 12.07.2007 5:30 PM PST]

  • 12.07.2007 5:13 PM PDT

hellllloooooo. my rank ISNT movin and i dont see how that solves it.whats happening here is not that its just standin still; IT HASNT MOVED FROM THE START. no its not cuz i suk either. in fact, i play againt kids who are marjor grades and i win. but the odd thing is that is just my experience,not my number skill and that is bungies fault. i MIGHT have an idea tho... imoved up to a private on the first day, didnt get the acheievement then i got disconnected from a game. i have a terrible coneection. anyway, it just dropped right down to a recruit and hasnt moved since! got it the dya it came out. also, im havin other issues. u know how i didnt get the achievement when i first got to the ranks? well when i beat the game, level 6 didnt register, and i had to do it again. it worked but i played it on easy which i know you cant do and it shows that it was on normal. thats two odd things, coincedence right? wrong. this is were it gets odd. look at my gamerscore and look at my shoulders. i have the security and i only have 610 for halo 3. that means something is SERIOUSLY wrong with my game,account or somehting, or that was not how to get the security shoulders and i dont think its the latter. help me and respond

  • 12.07.2007 5:35 PM PDT

Posted by: Cory Siehr
If someone could give me an explanation on my following problem i wuold greatly appreciate it:

I'm not here to complain about the ranking system-- i just want my question answered.

Me and 2 friends created BRAND NEW gamertags. We played about 20 social games winning all 20. Then we entered Team Slayer and played 9 games leveling up to level 10. So far we a re 30/30 (9/9) in ranked. This may seem unbelieveable but you can Check my earliest recent games and add them up. We won 50-100 games in a row in Team Slayer and didn't go up to an 11. Like i said i don't care about this i just was hoping someone could shed some insight on this. (It just seems a little rediculous...if Trueskill thinks our skill level was too good for level 10(we won 50+ games in a row) then why wouldn't it level us up higher quicker to where other players had the same amount of Sigma or Mu or whatever??? It just doesn't make any sense. Anyways free EXP.
This is a known issue with the system. It's something Bungie is working on fixing. There have been a number of other teams that have gone undefeated and won 140+ and been stuck at level 15. I believe the reason is the way the MM system is matching players. Teams that win to much end up in low quality matches. If the match is considered low quality the system can't determine anything from it, so when you win essentially nothing happens. You just end up spinning your wheels playing these types of matches over and over again because each win really doesn't do anything to move you. It looks like you eventually got unstuck which is good but I can understand that must have been a little frustrating constantly winning without much effort. Bungie is working on the issue though.

Microsoft has a calculator you can use online. I'll try to explain my theory using that. The skill level you see next to your name is calculated using this formula: "Displayed Level" = Mu - K * Sigma. Let's say your displayed skill level is an 11. Since you are new and haven't lost much you've risen to an 11 but still have a pretty high sigma...let's say 5. The variable K is a constant assigned by the developer. Micrsoft says 3 is often used so that's what I'll use for this example.

Your opponent on the other hand is really an 11 or close to it. The system is pretty sure so there simga is low...lets say it's a 1.

Using the formula I mentioned above we can solve for Mu.

Mu = "Displayed Level" + K*Sigma

So you have a Mu = 11 + 3 * 5 = 26
Opponent as a Mu = 11 + 3 * 1 = 14

Now that we know our the parties Mu and Sigma values we can use the calculator to see what happens.

* Note: Red is the winning team and blue is the losing team

1) Set the game mode to "2 large teams"
2) Fill in the Mu values for the red members which should be 26
3) Fill in the Sigma values for the red members. I picked 5 so enter that in.
4) Fill in the Mu values for the blue members which should be 14
5) Fill in the Sigma values for the blue members. I picked 1 remember.
6) Now click the calculate button.

Notice the match quality percentage is really low. It should be 0.07%. Take note of how the Mu and Sigma values changed for each team. The winning team had little to no gain. As you can imagine if you got stuck playing matches like this nothing would happen. It would take forever to move up. This is what I believe is happening in cases like this. It's just my own personal theory, but I know lukems had mentioned something about poor match quality in one of his posts being a problem in these situations.

  • 12.07.2007 6:26 PM PDT
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I completely agree with you 100% And in the latest weekly update Bungie said they were working on it or along the lines of this problem (not directly). So I'm not exactly worried I'm just glad I have a better understanding of the current ranking system and roughly how it works. Thank you for your time.

[Edited on 12.07.2007 6:31 PM PST]

  • 12.07.2007 6:31 PM PDT