- last post: 01.01.0001 12:00 AM PDT
Posted by: TwoFaced1680
Posted by: Baaaaaaaaaaaaah
Posted by: TwoFaced1680
Posted by: I3utteRzZ
So...how do I get my sigma higher again, so I can level up faster...again.You can't. Sigma is increased slightly before each calculation to prevent it from ever reaching zero. In general though Sigma always goes down after a game. There is no evidence that shows you can do anything to raise your Sigma.
If Sigma is simply standard deviation, and you go on a streak that consistantly deviates from your expected performance (lots of variance), wouldn't your sigma naturally increase? I would have thought sigma would only approach 0 if you are performing according to the system's expectations.
Been a few years since I have taken a high levels stats course, but that would be my theory.I can't really explain the math behind it, but think of it this way. After each game something is learned about you. Depending on who you played and what the system knows about them will determine just how much can be learned from that one game. Every game you play gives the system a bit more information and allows the system to zero in on your true skill. Thus uncertainty (Sigma) has to go down after each game. In theory once Sigma has dropped very low you should trully be at your skill level and prolonged win streaks shouldn't be possible. However, players skills do change and it's possible you've improved and can suddenly win all your games. In that case the system would increase your skill level over time, but it will take a while to "convince it" to move you.
I absolutely understand that....but I think sigma increases when your "skill" changes, because there is now variation around the expected mean. A larage streak would signify a skill change...so I suspect MU and sigma would go up in that case.