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  • Subject: In depth explanation of the Halo 3 skill ranking system.
Subject: In depth explanation of the Halo 3 skill ranking system.
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Posted by: Unleet Jew
I have a question. I have a skill of 14, and EXP of 63, so why am I not a lieutenant? Do I have to do all the gunnery sergeant ranks before I can become an officer?


you need 70 exp point to be a lieutenant

  • 12.14.2007 9:48 PM PDT
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Posted by: Tiki Guy
Good theory on the ranking system; however it doesn't disprove the fact that the ranking system is the single most disappointing characteristic of Halo 3. Here's an idea for a system, are you ready to handle some LOGIC, Bungie?
X (wins) - Y (Loses) = Rank
That just happened.


Then bad players have higher ranks than they should be...team boosting. Their system is far from perfect, but I think it is better than simple win/loss.

  • 12.15.2007 12:07 PM PDT
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I've never figured out why they couldn't factor in k/d spread in the team slayer rankings. As in you get a bump for winning, but you get an additional bump for a k/d +10 or more, a slightly smaller bump for +5, and a slightly smaller bump still for +4 to 0. I see this as being benificial for two reasons. First, you negate the "coat tail" player by him not ranking up as high for being on the winning team with a -5 spread. And second, if you happen to being on the losing squad with a +7, you rank up faster than the guy who ran kamakaze into the enemy 19 times with only 5 kills to show for it. Doesn't it seem that if the players with the best k/d spread level up faster that having tighter games will be inevitable? Lord knows that I've been the worst player on the winning team and the best player on the losing team many times, so I'm not saying that I'm a great player. But I do think that if I'm the only one on my team that didn't run like lemmings into a death trap, that it should reflect that in my so called skill ranking.

[Edited on 12.15.2007 5:50 PM PST]

  • 12.15.2007 5:49 PM PDT
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Really good explanation on the Ranking System... Thanks !

Sorry if this have been stated before... But there's alot of post to go through and I haven't seen any ask the same question... Here goes:

The Ranking System is all good and that, but some major flaws I constantly run into is these 3 senarios:

1: Ppl on your team quits (Almost no chance of wining that one in Rank 30th) - So I get punished.

2. Ppl on your team lags out/ppl on other team lags out (In my oppinion when that happens, the system should disable and not include that match)

3. Both teams are equal in ranks for ex. in "Team Slayer", but the other team have "Brigadier" and are generally in the 40th for highest skill. The team your on, generally consists of "Major's" in 30th Highest skill achieved.

(It seems the systems is completely bypassing the Highest skill achieved and does not take that into account). ?!

[Edited on 12.16.2007 4:24 AM PST]

  • 12.16.2007 3:53 AM PDT

.(``)(``)
..(oO) < O'rly?
.(,,)(,,)
(,,,)(,,,)

Posted by: DjRS
Really good explanation on the Ranking System... Thanks !

Sorry if this have been stated before... But there's alot of post to go through and I haven't seen any ask the same question... Here goes:

The Ranking System is all good and that, but some major flaws I constantly run into is these 3 senarios:

1: Ppl on your team quits (Almost no chance of wining that one in Rank 30th) - So I get punished.

2. Ppl on your team lags out/ppl on other team lags out (In my oppinion when that happens, the system should disable and not include that match)

3. Both teams are equal in ranks for ex. in "Team Slayer", but the other team have "Brigadier" and are generally in the 40th for highest skill. The team your on, generally consists of "Major's" in 30th Highest skill achieved.

(It seems the systems is completely bypassing the Highest skill achieved and does not take that into account). ?!


ill try to reply on that then^^
1: the most common reason for ppl leaving is because you are loosing therefore it wouldnt help if he/she left. i have won several matches with 1 or more players leaving so i know that this is not the only possible reason, 1 guy leaving can doom your entire match, but you must not give up because this only makes it harder for the other team to get kills since there are fewer guys to kill, get your team to hide with snipers around the map and it should be OK.

2: If some1 lags every1 lags, this is'nt just happening to 1 guy therefore it is a disadvantage for everyone. to say that you should exclude this match because some1 lags is like sayong that you should exlude another one for playing CTF, it happens to every1 and therefore no one gets an advantage from this

3: if the other team has 40 in highest and your has 30 then the other team is unbalanced in comparison to yours, if your team has generally avarage players and the other team has some good and some bad it will only be an advantage to you because then there are some players on the other who will only be dragging the other team down while every1 on your team will know what to do. if you find yourself in a similar situation just simply pick on the weakest get get scores of kills from the most inexperienced. so you see that it does take the highest skill into consideration because the avarage is the same, the variation between players isnt.

  • 12.16.2007 5:00 AM PDT
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The ranking system is similar to anything else Microsoft "squirts" out of Redmond: superfluously complicated, opaque to the end-user and so off the mark it's almost laughable. Why can't I know exactly how it works? People afraid of "gaming" it? That's a good one. The anecdotes of people running 5 or 6 consecutive games and not being up-ranked and then losing a game, only to be down-ranked are why this post is (now) 24 pages long. The ranking system's arbitrary, unexplained nature SIGNIFICANTLY detracts from the quality of career mode. It flat-out SUCKS. Hopefully, with Bungie and MS's parting, we won't have to have this pathetic excuse for a ranking system inflicted on us again.

[Edited on 12.16.2007 9:34 AM PST]

  • 12.16.2007 9:33 AM PDT

Personally I hate the ranking system but then its ok if it is working for you i suppose.

I just hate the fact that the system decided who ranks up and who dosent and its not down to your performance during those games etc.

  • 12.16.2007 10:50 AM PDT
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question ?is sigma basically my win to lose record?

if so my record (wins-loses) is about 5-1 would my sigma be hi or lo

  • 12.16.2007 1:17 PM PDT
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Posted by: xKill Trocity
question ?is sigma basically my win to lose record?

if so my record (wins-loses) is about 5-1 would my sigma be hi or lo


No. Sigma is the uncertainty around your skill level. The more you play the less it is because the system becomes more confident about your skill.

  • 12.16.2007 6:40 PM PDT

Posted by: MightyLophan
The ranking system is similar to anything else Microsoft "squirts" out of Redmond: superfluously complicated, opaque to the end-user and so off the mark it's almost laughable. Why can't I know exactly how it works? People afraid of "gaming" it? That's a good one. The anecdotes of people running 5 or 6 consecutive games and not being up-ranked and then losing a game, only to be down-ranked are why this post is (now) 24 pages long. The ranking system's arbitrary, unexplained nature SIGNIFICANTLY detracts from the quality of career mode. It flat-out SUCKS. Hopefully, with Bungie and MS's parting, we won't have to have this pathetic excuse for a ranking system inflicted on us again.
Actually, MS explains how the system works in depth on the site linked in the OP. The only unknown is the modifications Bungie has made but for the most part, it works how it's supposed to work according to MS. NO ONE has ever complained when they go up after each win initially or jump 2 skills for each win. It's when they slow down that they start complaining and the reason why this thread is so long. People see quick jumps initially and when it slows down, they wonder why. Yea, there are issues with teams that only play together or teams with huge skill differences not ranking up, but I would argue those are the minority.

I think, despite the confusion and issues, it is superior to the H2 system. The system can get you up quickly, lessening the impact on the lower skilled players who are stepping stones for people of greater skill. It more accurately gages your performance requiring you to beat players at equal or higher skill before it rewards you and moves you up. Also, once the system is confident in your rank, it keeps you around that same skill unless you prove, through a lot of games, you are better or worse. You won't bounce up and down 5 skill levels in a night.

At the end of the day, it's only a number. Some people like to look at it like it means something, it means they are good, it means they are bad, it makes them feel all warm and fuzzy. That's fine and all but the goal of the system is to make your games fun and exciting. No, one wants to grind out a ton of wins just to get to some competitive matches. I personally think the system is too easy on players and ranks you up too quickly. Some are pissed when they win 5 games in a row and don't go up. In H2, it took about 4 wins to go one level and it didn't really matter what rank the opposition was. This made a lot of games one sided as player were able to move up without really getting "better".

  • 12.17.2007 5:47 AM PDT

I keep getting banned since the mods are unfunny and suck at their jobs!

how come campapign games count toward your total amount of matches played,
unlike in halo 2?

  • 12.17.2007 11:05 AM PDT
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I don't know if this was mentioned before but:

"Trueskill DOES NOT take into evaluation performances inside the game. The ONLY statistics that Trueskill takes from a game are the Mu and Sigma values of all the players, and how you placed."

Is incorrect. How you perform ingame and who you perform with is taken into consideration. This has been proven through testing. It's also the same reason you can rank up in ie Lone Wolves off a loss (5th/6th place), or rank down off a win (1st place). It's also why if you play team based modes, different teammates will rank up at difference rates, despite the fact all accounts are new (freebee trial cards). Also, for another example, if you play 4v4 Team Slayer, and your team is made up of 4 friends, and the other teams you play are randomly strewn together, you wont gain rank (you might get one here and there), regardless of how many wins, and how well you do. But as soon as you jump in alone, and hook up with a random team, you'll rank up almost every match, win or lose, as long as you have a good K/D and place 1st on your team in kills/objective (even if you lose, if you're in 1st on your team, you should rank up a lot).

  • 12.17.2007 12:30 PM PDT

I dont think that the part about being in the team results in ranking slow is true. Tons of people travel with their teams. The only problem with having ur own team is when its mixed ranks. mixed ranks team ranks up slow because bungie tried to limit boosting.

  • 12.17.2007 2:02 PM PDT

Men, we've led these dumb bugs out to the middle of nowhere to keep from getting their filthy claws on earth, but, we stumbled on to something that's so hot for them, that they're scrambling over each other to get it. Well, I don't care if it's God's own anti-son-of-a-b*tch machine, or a giant hola-hoop, we ain't gonna let them have it. What we will let them have, is a belly full of lead, and a pool of their own blood to drown in!

Does placement on a team matter? Under 'myth busting' you say that Trueskill takes into account how you placed - I'm curious to see if placement on a particular team matters at all.

  • 12.17.2007 2:08 PM PDT
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Is a high Sigma the reason my Social Slayer games seem more difficult than my ranked games?

  • 12.17.2007 3:05 PM PDT

Posted by: Kun1z
I don't know if this was mentioned before but:

"Trueskill DOES NOT take into evaluation performances inside the game. The ONLY statistics that Trueskill takes from a game are the Mu and Sigma values of all the players, and how you placed."

Is incorrect. How you perform ingame and who you perform with is taken into consideration. This has been proven through testing. It's also the same reason you can rank up in ie Lone Wolves off a loss (5th/6th place), or rank down off a win (1st place).
MS and Bungie have stated that individual performance does not matter, only winning or losing. Your K/D ratio, MVP, how many kills, etc. are not tracked or used for skill determination. The reasons for people ranking up from a loss and down from a win have been explained. It was not stated that who you play against doesn't matter. It does matter in the sense that the MU and Sigma of your opponents are used pre-game when the system calculates who should win and what the MU and sigma adjustments are post-game.

It's also why if you play team based modes, different teammates will rank up at difference rates, despite the fact all accounts are new (freebee trial cards). I've seen evidence of a team who only played together for 160 games and all had the same rank. I have not seen players who have only played together and moved at different rates but if you would link their GT's, I would love to check em out.

Also, for another example, if you play 4v4 Team Slayer, and your team is made up of 4 friends, and the other teams you play are randomly strewn together, you wont gain rank (you might get one here and there), regardless of how many wins, and how well you do. But as soon as you jump in alone, and hook up with a random team, you'll rank up almost every match, win or lose, as long as you have a good K/D and place 1st on your team in kills/objective (even if you lose, if you're in 1st on your team, you should rank up a lot).Again, I have seen no evidence of this and have seen a lot of evidence against this. Those moving up after losing a game are uncommon. There is far more evidence of teams being mixed skills playing together and not moving much or teams playing against teams of lower average skill and not moving. I have seen no one rank up almost every match when they lose even though they have a high K/D ratio or come in "first" on the losing team. If you know of some, please provide their GT's so we can check it out.

It's not that I flat out don't believe you but it's highly suspect to just come in here and say things are proven incorrect without providing any evidence. I and others in this thread have taken the time to look at a ton of GT's of people who are confused, pissed off, curious or just don't get it and have been able to explain everything that has happened to them using the MS pages on TrueSkill. What you are saying is opposite of how the designers of the system says it works so before I can agree with you, I need to see some evidence.

  • 12.17.2007 3:09 PM PDT
Subject: good work with this

Attention whores piss me off.

i find this thread very helpful in explaining the ranking system. i know its not "legit" but Bungie hasn't released anything explaining it, and this is the best detailed explaination ive heard.

[Edited on 12.17.2007 7:11 PM PST]

  • 12.17.2007 7:09 PM PDT
Subject: In depth explanation of the Halo 3 skill ranking system.
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Heres one question that may have came up in the 20 some pages of this thread's discussion, but I'll ask it anyway because I think that it is a good question to have answered..

When playing Team Slayer games, is there any evidence of the Sigma/Mu being effected based off of the margin you lose to a team or beat a team by? As I understand it your only going to be ranked off of your placement for your team and whether or not your team won. When I say individually, I don't mean for personal gain. I just mean its factored as part of what decides where you belong. Less exp for the player who placed in last for their team. But again, I have yet to hear anything determining what the ranking system does about the win/loss margin during the post game.

  • 12.17.2007 10:20 PM PDT
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Ok I had read about the trueskill system when it first came out, way back when 360 came out, and have had the math courses to understand it for the most part. However, it has been awhile since I read it and I don't remember, and am lazy and unsure of a couple of things. Mainly these questions are asked with the idea of mixed parties in mind.

First, how it calculates mu in team games. Since the system only takes in wins in losses, does the system compare your mu level to the average level of the other team or just your team's average skill to the other teams average skill. The reason I ask is because if you are personally compared to the other team instead of doing team vs team, then if you are the highest level almost every loss is going to hurt you a lot and every win is going to help you little assuming the matches are even matches based on skill level averages.

If the mu you get/lose from a loss/win is based on the team's average skill vs opposing team's average skill, then I believe this could be easily exploited. One would just to have someone create an account and lose many many games, so that his sigma was low, and that the system is very sure that he is one of the worst players in the game. Then the player who is actually a lot better, say like a 45, could then play in a mixed party of with like other 45's. Then likely every match would infact be mismatches, but the wins would be counted as large mu wins by the system for those players, and would count heavily against the opposing players.

Mainly just wondering about the first part, because I sometimes play in mixed parties, and am usually the highes level. However, while typing the question it made me wonder about the scenario i thought up.

  • 12.18.2007 12:07 AM PDT

Posted by: Baaaaaaaaaaaaah
Posted by: TwoFaced1680
Posted by: Baaaaaaaaaaaaah
Posted by: TwoFaced1680
Posted by: I3utteRzZ
So...how do I get my sigma higher again, so I can level up faster...again.
You can't. Sigma is increased slightly before each calculation to prevent it from ever reaching zero. In general though Sigma always goes down after a game. There is no evidence that shows you can do anything to raise your Sigma.


If Sigma is simply standard deviation, and you go on a streak that consistantly deviates from your expected performance (lots of variance), wouldn't your sigma naturally increase? I would have thought sigma would only approach 0 if you are performing according to the system's expectations.

Been a few years since I have taken a high levels stats course, but that would be my theory.
I can't really explain the math behind it, but think of it this way. After each game something is learned about you. Depending on who you played and what the system knows about them will determine just how much can be learned from that one game. Every game you play gives the system a bit more information and allows the system to zero in on your true skill. Thus uncertainty (Sigma) has to go down after each game. In theory once Sigma has dropped very low you should trully be at your skill level and prolonged win streaks shouldn't be possible. However, players skills do change and it's possible you've improved and can suddenly win all your games. In that case the system would increase your skill level over time, but it will take a while to "convince it" to move you.


I absolutely understand that....but I think sigma increases when your "skill" changes, because there is now variation around the expected mean. A larage streak would signify a skill change...so I suspect MU and sigma would go up in that case.
Sorry for explaining the obviouse :) I've found no mention in Microsoft's paper that Sigma would begin to rise for any given reason. Here is a quote from the documentation that tells us Sigma goes down after every game:

"The uncertainty of both players (regardless of win/loss/draw) is going to decrease by the factor [equation omitted]"

We know streaks aren't taken into account by TrueSkill. Jay120171 actually wrote microsoft asking this very question and got a response. I'll just post his original post below.

Posted by: Jay120171
OK, so there was a discussion about winning and losing streaks affecting sigma/skill. So, at that time I decided to email MS about it and ask. As it turns out, in the Xbox Live TrueSkill system, it DOES NOT take streaks in to account. Now, we know Bungie uses a modified version of TrueSkill so we can't say with 100% certainty one way or another but still this is useful info.

Here is the email response I received:

TrueSkill as used on Xbox Live stores one mu and one sigma value for each game, game mode; as such, it only takes into account the current game but never considers a streak of wins. BTW, we are currently attending the NIPS conference where we present a paper and an analysis on the game of Chess were we do take whole streaks of wins and losses into account!


Best wishes,

Ralf Herbrich





[Edited on 12.18.2007 1:56 PM PST]

  • 12.18.2007 1:23 AM PDT

Posted by: justKILLNtime
Heres one question that may have came up in the 20 some pages of this thread's discussion, but I'll ask it anyway because I think that it is a good question to have answered..

When playing Team Slayer games, is there any evidence of the Sigma/Mu being effected based off of the margin you lose to a team or beat a team by? As I understand it your only going to be ranked off of your placement for your team and whether or not your team won. When I say individually, I don't mean for personal gain. I just mean its factored as part of what decides where you belong. Less exp for the player who placed in last for their team. But again, I have yet to hear anything determining what the ranking system does about the win/loss margin during the post game.
No data about the game is used aside from the knowledge that your team won or lost. Margin of victory or any other stat isn't considered. Microsoft's paper mentions this so we know that for sure.

The factors for updating your skill level are:

1) Did you win or lose
2) Mu and Sigma values of those involved

  • 12.18.2007 1:31 AM PDT

Posted by: Tiki Guy
Does placement on a team matter? Under 'myth busting' you say that Trueskill takes into account how you placed - I'm curious to see if placement on a particular team matters at all.
Everyone on the same team places the same. There is no 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th amongst the same team. When a team wins each individual place's first.

  • 12.18.2007 1:46 AM PDT
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Posted by: e1337 venom
As informative as this is, most of the general population who plays halo (iq 100-110) will NOT understand this, but eh, btw lol thanks for the math fun ( im a mensa nerd )

For the normies:
IF YOU SUCK YOU NO RANK UP!!!!


Clearly this guy has just returned from the library!

Thanks for the OP and all who have made decent contributions. Clearly most ppl have been satisfied with this info but if someone would care to confirm these english queries that would be super. I am a lvl 11 in TS and think i have a low sigma as despite winning a lot of games, fail to rank as quickly as i would expect. I want a higher sigma as at my present lvl, i know i can win the vast majority of my games..(say 80-90%) and with a high sigma would rank very quickly. Hopefully a few other ppl will benefit from this post.

To achieve a higher sigma i can lose games the system expect me to win?
To achieve a higher sigma I can win games the system expect me to lose?
To acheive a higher sigma I can streak wins then streak losses?
Teams that play together all the time suffer when trying to rank up?
Teams with mixed abilities suffer when trying to rank up?

Thanks and feel free to ignore the following...

<rant>

If indeed it is true going into TEAM slayer matchmaking on your own enables you to rank up quicker in any circumstances it is a very sad day for Halo as playing with your team is surely what its all about. All i want to do is achieve the skill that pits my team against people the same ability. If i play and win 10 games and lvl up to a 12 and then lose one game to a lesser team and go back down is that right and is it a true representation of skill considering the other teams TrueSkill might actually be estimated to be lower than it actually is? Even if their TrueSkill is correct every dog has his day right? Is it really necessary to win 20, 30 or 40 games on the bounce to go up a couple of ranks when I know other gamers of similar ability have ranked up with relative ease by winning the same ammount of games. This might be easily explained given examples but is it how we all want it? What is wrong with winning to get ranked up or even better take into account KvD to give better players a nudge up in team games? At the end of the day you are only as good as you are and not as good as your rank so who cares if people get boosted, it doesn't make them better and in turn they will let their side down or give up playing TS so they can keep the rank...let em have it I say. I'm sure this system is great if you have acheived your correct TrueSkill before your sigma is so low you cant make a difference but hang on...

"its ok A11YourBase...there is a chance that there might be some speculation that suggests that maybe if you win like 50 games straight you can earn the right to then start to be able to make a difference to you skill level..." I think that was sarcasm and i might be getting slightly annoyed! Sorry.

Its great on the way down as once you have your TrueSkill you can't easily deviate to play people that are a lot worse but I and many others seem to be getting an unfair deal. Its seems a bit pathetic I know, and people who may or may not really care about their own rank will belittle me saying "Its not about rank and who cares its just a number etc" but I want to improve and play better teams and its very hard under this system and in my situation. Its why I play and part of human nature to strive to be better and acheive things...thats why most of us play games. Last night for th first time in my halo playing life i felt like i had properly wasted my time, playing 15 games of ranked TS, winning 13 (a lot far too easily) and not feeling like i had acheived anything. Probably a good 7 hours in which i could be drinking beer or having sex...i'll never get that time back!!

</rant>

[Edited on 12.18.2007 7:14 AM PST]

  • 12.18.2007 3:53 AM PDT
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Posted by: A11YourBase
Posted by: e1337 venom
As informative as this is, most of the general population who plays halo (iq 100-110) will NOT understand this, but eh, btw lol thanks for the math fun ( im a mensa nerd )

For the normies:
IF YOU SUCK YOU NO RANK UP!!!!



To achieve a higher sigma i can lose games the system expect me to win?
To achieve a higher sigma I can win games the system expect me to lose?
To acheive a higher sigma I can streak wins then streak losses?
Teams that play together all the time suffer when trying to rank up?
Teams with mixed abilities suffer when trying to rank up?

Thanks and feel free to ignore the following...

</rant>


1) you cannot raise your sigma under any circumstances. It only gets lower as you play more games.
2) Teams with mixed abilities suffer slightly b/c there is an anti cheating mechanism in play to hamper/prevent cheaters. it kinda stinks, but it is neccessary, and they are tweaking it.
3) i cannot answer your question about teams playing together all of the time having problems, but if that is indeed true, it would also be do to the anti cheating system in place, although i do not believe it to be true.

  • 12.18.2007 8:27 AM PDT

Posted by: A11YourBase
To achieve a higher sigma i can lose games the system expect me to win?
To achieve a higher sigma I can win games the system expect me to lose?
To acheive a higher sigma I can streak wins then streak losses?
Teams that play together all the time suffer when trying to rank up?
Teams with mixed abilities suffer when trying to rank up?

Thanks and feel free to ignore the following...

As was stated you cannot raise your sigma.
There is no "extra credit" for streaks.
Teams that ONLY play together have issues
(A team of four who have only played as a team of 4 and never with anyone else)
Yes, teams with mixed skill levels of about 5 or more seem to suffer.

I posted this in your other thread but I am not sure you saw it:

Yes there is a sticky on the H3 forum that will explain what's going on to you but I checked your games out anyway. Probably the main thing that is slowing you down is the fact you have not won much more than you've lost. I checked TS games only and you are 48W-31L. The system cranked you up pretty fast at first and then you started losing and winning in equal amounts around level 7. Once you start winning and losing in equal amounts, the system thinks that's the level you should be (lowered sigma). If you would have won consistently more than you lost, your sigma would have stayed higher making moving up in skill faster. You can get by with losing one here and there and still move up fast but if you are only winning 60% of your games, it will take you significantly longer.

The other issue that may have slowed you down is playing in a mixed skill party. This is a problem with the system where people with large skill differences are very slow to move up. You played most of your games with friend(s) 5 to 10 skill levels higher than you. This issues is something that Bungie is looking in to but until there is a resolution, don't expect to go up much when playing with friends high above or far below your skill level.

  • 12.18.2007 8:37 AM PDT