- Jay120171
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- Exalted Mythic Member
Posted by: A11YourBase
The Trueskill system is just an equation that takes into account who wins and the respective Mu and Sigma values of each player/team. It does not remember whether you are more likely to beat a team who is better than you. That would be extremely complicated and not something beneficial in calculating how good a player/team is.
TrueSkill calculates who should win prior to the game happening by using the Mu and Sigma of each participant. If it thinks you should win and you do, you get a smaller amount of Mu increase compared to if it thinks your should lose and you win. This is why it is important to to beat teams equal or higher than you and not lose to teams lower than you. It also is putting you in matches with participants who have a greater Sigma than you as "tests" so to speak. Early on you, when your Sigma is high, you are matched with players who are at the same level as you but have a lower Sigma. The system is sure of their rank and if you beat them, it knows to keep your Sigma higher because you haven't got to a point where it is certain of your skill yet.
Yes, there are some things about the system that are funky and just plain suck for some. Mixed skilled parties having trouble leveling is a good example of something they know is an issue. I believe they may also be basing Mu calculation of parties as well, only a theory but I think so and would explain why playing with randoms often times will get a player up quicker than playing in a party. The system will try to find you a match based on party size and if it can't, I think you get a "low quality" match where it doesn't adjust Mu much.
One thing to keep in mind is this system was designed using H2 MM data. They took a look at all the problems with H2 skill system and created this system. I think people level up quickly and assume they are going to move up quickly no matter what. In H2, you still had to play a hell of a lot of games to get in to the 30's and 40's. I got there in like 60 games (not all wins) in H3 and have been bouncing back and fourth between 42 and 43 since. In H2, 60 wins (wins not games) would have got me like level 15. I find that although I would love to be a 50, I am not winning consistently enough to move up.
If you've played 500 games and have been winning like 60%, going on a streak of 10 games is not going to move you much. If you start winning 80% of your games, you WILL go up but it's going to be baby steps. If you play badly at first and get better. Again, you will go up but it's going to be slow going. MS states that after the system is confident in your skill level, it's going to take at least 50 games for it to recognize a substantial skill change when playing 4v4. I looked at a ton of stats and see players get to the 40's in 100 games of TS. They won 80-90% of their games. If you are a level 25 and you only win 60% of your games, are you really better than a 25. I think you should win 80-90% to go up and prove you are playing better than a 25.
As far as I know, all Xbox Live games use the TrueSkill system. I think it is better than the H2 system, all things considered. I know a lot of people don't get it and that is the downside of showing people their "rank". Everyone wants a high number and compare numbers and what not but the goal is really to get you good, fun, competitive matches. I have far few one-sided games in H3 compared to H2 and many more close, hard battles. If Bungie/MS gets a few of these weird issues ironed out, it will make it a little less frustrating for a lot of people.