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  • Subject: In depth explanation of the Halo 3 skill ranking system.
Subject: In depth explanation of the Halo 3 skill ranking system.

Posted by: mustangjohnny01
Alot of this makes since but I still think that there might be something wrong with the rank system as of lately. I have won 29 TS games in a row now and I have not leveled up from a 21. Your Mu though works for most but I am starting to think that I pissed some one off at bungie. I mean come on 29 straight wins and not even 1 level increase, thats weak!
It's not that Bungie hates you personally, it's mixed parties in general. You played a lot of those games in a mixed party (10 or more levels apart). When you play in a mixed party, you get very little, if any, credit for the wins. It's done to discourage boosting your lower skilled friends up quickly. Play some games with friends around your same skill level (less than 10 apart) and you should level up after a few wins.

TrueSkill FAQ

  • 03.03.2008 11:17 AM PDT

great info

  • 03.03.2008 12:28 PM PDT

Great explanation, and I liked the examples. I can see how the system would work flawlessly in Lone Wolves, but it seems markedly unfair for Team playlists, and it does seem "broken" occasionally. Roughly half of the Team Slayer games I've played have been with a friend of mine, AgentExlax. Just today, we played five games, both of us starting at skill 21. We won the first, lost the second, won the 3rd and 4th, but lost the last.
Now here's where things get tricky. We both went up a rank with the first win (kudos to me for a running riot and only one death) and we both went down a rank from the loss (it happens to the best of us, and I am NOT the best). With the next game, we both went back up to 22, and then up again to 23 with the following victory. With the final loss, however, I went down to 22 (understandable, if unwelcome) and he stayed at 23.
Now, as I said, about half of the TS games I've played have been with AgantExlax (50 or so out of about 100, we started playing together when he was skill 11 and I was 19) so our recent game history in TS has been exactly the same, if you only look at win/loss. In all but the final game, the skill ranks were nearly identical. For the last game, our team had a level 27, 26, and me and Agent at 23. The other team had 3 lvl 25's and a 24, so we were the lowest ranked players. With the explantion given as to how the ranking system works, I can see the loss of rank with that last game, BUT WHY JUST ME. AgentExlax has nearly an identicaly win/loss spread as me, but he didn't go down.
I'm sure it sounds like I'm whining, and to some degree I know I am, but I'm just trying to figure out WHY (why I went down, not why I'm whining). If there is a perfectly reasonable explanation, I would be glad to hear it, no matter what it is. Hell, if you want the exact stats, just look them up with a player search for Jedi Vigilante or AgentExlax. They are the 5 games from 3/3/08 at 11:16:12 AM to 3/3/08 at 11:53:37 AM, starting with the Shotty Sniper on Snowbound to the Team Slayer on Narrows. You can even look at my entire Halo 3 game history and run it through the numbers if you really feel like proving me wrong and rubbing it in my face. Either way, I would just like a reason besides "shut up and stop complaining" so that I know I haven't accidentally pissed somebody off at Bungie and am never going to break 25 in TS.

  • 03.03.2008 2:34 PM PDT
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Posted by: Jedi Vigilante
Great explanation, and I liked the examples. I can see how the system would work flawlessly in Lone Wolves, but it seems markedly unfair for Team playlists, and it does seem "broken" occasionally. Roughly half of the Team Slayer games I've played have been with a friend of mine, AgentExlax. Just today, we played five games, both of us starting at skill 21. We won the first, lost the second, won the 3rd and 4th, but lost the last.
Now here's where things get tricky. We both went up a rank with the first win (kudos to me for a running riot and only one death) and we both went down a rank from the loss (it happens to the best of us, and I am NOT the best). With the next game, we both went back up to 22, and then up again to 23 with the following victory. With the final loss, however, I went down to 22 (understandable, if unwelcome) and he stayed at 23.
Now, as I said, about half of the TS games I've played have been with AgantExlax (50 or so out of about 100, we started playing together when he was skill 11 and I was 19) so our recent game history in TS has been exactly the same, if you only look at win/loss. In all but the final game, the skill ranks were nearly identical. For the last game, our team had a level 27, 26, and me and Agent at 23. The other team had 3 lvl 25's and a 24, so we were the lowest ranked players. With the explantion given as to how the ranking system works, I can see the loss of rank with that last game, BUT WHY JUST ME. AgentExlax has nearly an identicaly win/loss spread as me, but he didn't go down.
I'm sure it sounds like I'm whining, and to some degree I know I am, but I'm just trying to figure out WHY (why I went down, not why I'm whining). If there is a perfectly reasonable explanation, I would be glad to hear it, no matter what it is. Hell, if you want the exact stats, just look them up with a player search for Jedi Vigilante or AgentExlax. They are the 5 games from 3/3/08 at 11:16:12 AM to 3/3/08 at 11:53:37 AM, starting with the Shotty Sniper on Snowbound to the Team Slayer on Narrows. You can even look at my entire Halo 3 game history and run it through the numbers if you really feel like proving me wrong and rubbing it in my face. Either way, I would just like a reason besides "shut up and stop complaining" so that I know I haven't accidentally pissed somebody off at Bungie and am never going to break 25 in TS.


You guys has seperate TS lives before you hooked up, which means differing sigma's. Don't expect to behave exactly the same as him from a ranking perspective, no matter how many you have played together recently.

And for clarification, the system doesn't work perfectly with LW's. Although you avoid mixed parties, the system still suffers from its sigma flaws. As well, it only works as well as the matchmaking works, which can be quite suspect sometimes.

  • 03.03.2008 2:49 PM PDT

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Posted by: Baaaaaaaaaaaaah


Hey! I played you last night in LW!

  • 03.03.2008 2:54 PM PDT

MJOLNIR SOLDIER

This makes a lot of sense and i had kinda figured this is how it works but you explain it very well, n e ways just wanted 2 say thx - 1zero4

  • 03.03.2008 3:03 PM PDT
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Posted by: Ponkapoag
Posted by: Baaaaaaaaaaaaah


Hey! I played you last night in LW!


LOL doesn't look like it was one of my better games. I'm not so great in matchmaking...way too used to customs these days.

[Edited on 03.03.2008 3:24 PM PST]

  • 03.03.2008 3:20 PM PDT

Dude, awesome job

  • 03.03.2008 5:51 PM PDT
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I love you

  • 03.04.2008 8:30 AM PDT
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Me and my friend opened up new accounts and started playing team doubles. We would only play team doubles with each other...after 50-60 games...I'm a level 33 and he is a level 28. If it only takes into account win/loss, why am I a higher level.

  • 03.04.2008 10:46 PM PDT
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Posted by: killa chunk
Me and my friend opened up new accounts and started playing team doubles. We would only play team doubles with each other...after 50-60 games...I'm a level 33 and he is a level 28. If it only takes into account win/loss, why am I a higher level.


Give us the gamertags. Undoubtably one of you has cheated on the other lol.....

  • 03.05.2008 12:03 AM PDT

Get Some!

okay i have a question. i played maybe 50 ranked games and got to a level 15 but now all i play is social games and it seems that when i play social games i'm almost guaranteed to be the lowest rank out of anyone. and not by just a little, by roughly 20 levels, meaning i'm playing with people that are usually levels 40 or up. any ideas why that is? it's really frustrating cause i get mopped up quite a bit haha. any help would be greatly appreciated

[Edited on 03.05.2008 8:54 PM PST]

  • 03.05.2008 8:44 PM PDT
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i really never had a problem with ranking up or down

and i never remember getting pissed of for ranking down 2 after winning a whole bunch.

im just used to win like 3 in a row to rank up, and lose 2 to rank down

and plus i always thought it was a 1, 2 situation like

it takes 2 wins to get a point, and 1 loss to lose a point and like the points are invisible and they add up

  • 03.05.2008 9:23 PM PDT
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Great topic, congratz on getting it stickied.

Just one question, you can increase your Sigma right? So say you get a better internet connection so you start winning more, will you start increasing your skill faster after 50 or so games of that hopper type?

Thanks

  • 03.06.2008 1:02 AM PDT
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hey man this is really helpfull thank allot

PEANUTZ117

  • 03.06.2008 2:04 AM PDT

Posted by: MIKE2027
okay i have a question. i played maybe 50 ranked games and got to a level 15 but now all i play is social games and it seems that when i play social games i'm almost guaranteed to be the lowest rank out of anyone. and not by just a little, by roughly 20 levels, meaning i'm playing with people that are usually levels 40 or up. any ideas why that is? it's really frustrating cause i get mopped up quite a bit haha. any help would be greatly appreciated
Social lists have a skill level just like the ranked lists. This is what is used for MM in social hoppers. Obviously the MM criteria is a little looser because of guests and what not but if you've played a lot of social slayer, you may have a level 30 or 40 by now. So, you are getting matches against other people who have played a lot of social slayer and attained that level too.

  • 03.06.2008 5:21 AM PDT

Posted by: Dasatii
Great topic, congratz on getting it stickied.

Just one question, you can increase your Sigma right? So say you get a better internet connection so you start winning more, will you start increasing your skill faster after 50 or so games of that hopper type?

Thanks
Yes and no. Normally, sigma will always decrease but in certain circumstances you can make it raise by winning a large amount of games. If you somehow start winning every game (which would include games the system thinks you should lose), it is possible to get sigma up and start going up after every few wins instead of an average of 10 for each skill.

  • 03.06.2008 5:31 AM PDT
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ReG + WL= Heroes of BTB

so then can u explain the crate glitch in objective games. This is mainly related to ctf and sometimes assualt. I have played a game and tied and gone up 2-3 levels and then for a win i have seen people go up 4-5 lvl in a RBTB or Team Objective game mainly on last resort. Not gonna tell specifically the deal with the crates on this its for u to figure out but it could either possibly be a glitch or just using the map and terrain to your advantage. If anyone knows what im talking about pm and we'll test it

[Edited on 03.06.2008 10:55 AM PST]

  • 03.06.2008 10:53 AM PDT

Get Some!

thanks for the help Jay, makes sense as to why i'm constantly the lowest ranked player

  • 03.06.2008 12:40 PM PDT
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Posted by: Jay120171
Posted by: Dasatii
Great topic, congratz on getting it stickied.

Just one question, you can increase your Sigma right? So say you get a better internet connection so you start winning more, will you start increasing your skill faster after 50 or so games of that hopper type?

Thanks
Yes and no. Normally, sigma will always decrease but in certain circumstances you can make it raise by winning a large amount of games. If you somehow start winning every game (which would include games the system thinks you should lose), it is possible to get sigma up and start going up after every few wins instead of an average of 10 for each skill.


You sure about that one Jay? Based on the formulas, the only way I could see you raise sigma is by never losing period. I know with the playlist update yesterday they might have tweaked something, but otherwise I am at a loss as to how this could happen. Microsoft outright said they don't take streaks into account.

Sorry if I missed some new info recently.

  • 03.06.2008 3:47 PM PDT
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It's people like you, with these great informative threads, that make the forums a better place. I give you five happy faces out of five! :D:D:D:D:D

[Edited on 03.06.2008 4:06 PM PST]

  • 03.06.2008 4:06 PM PDT

Posted by: Baaaaaaaaaaaaah
You sure about that one Jay? Based on the formulas, the only way I could see you raise sigma is by never losing period. I know with the playlist update yesterday they might have tweaked something, but otherwise I am at a loss as to how this could happen. Microsoft outright said they don't take streaks into account.

Sorry if I missed some new info recently.
There is some new info available by going to the Inside Bungie menu item up there and selecting Publications. They have a PowerPoint on MM in H3. There is some info about what Bungie did to modify TrueSkill. One item of interest was the fact they used a 'performance modifier' to prevent people from ever reaching convergence and allowing their skill to remain fluid. I am guessing by increasing the amount of sigma that gets added back in during each game.

They also stated that the first 50-100 games of a playlist have their skill updates factored down. This will slow skill progression and give the player a 'hill climbing' experience. Similar to what is/was done to mixed skilled parties.

Also, it's not that streaks are taken in to account but the fact someone is on a winning streak is an indicator or them winning games the system thinks they shouldn't - unpredictable. Also, MS states that once you reach convergence, it will take a large amount of games (100 or more) for the system to recognize an increase in your ability and then allow you to level up. This statement shows that it is possible to get your sigma higher which would then allow your skill level to become fluid again. In other words, your sigma would go up, the MM system would then get you in some 'key match-ups' where you can get a big MU boost if you win, etc. So, we have Bungie preventing convergence already (assume by using sigma), a possibility you can increase your sigma anyway and a player winning games they shouldn't be.

Then again, I could be totally wrong and full of BS :)

  • 03.06.2008 4:40 PM PDT

Posted by: Ure Mama
so then can u explain the crate glitch in objective games. This is mainly related to ctf and sometimes assualt. I have played a game and tied and gone up 2-3 levels and then for a win i have seen people go up 4-5 lvl in a RBTB or Team Objective game mainly on last resort. Not gonna tell specifically the deal with the crates on this its for u to figure out but it could either possibly be a glitch or just using the map and terrain to your advantage. If anyone knows what im talking about pm and we'll test it
If you mean covering the flag point or bomb point with a crate to get a tie, I guess it's a glitch but more of a strategy.

Anyway, I almost hate to say for fear people will use it to manipulate the system, but ties are considered wins. It's not that you get a bigger skill increase but you still get an increase.

  • 03.06.2008 4:44 PM PDT
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Help be part of the solution,

make the halo 3 community a better place for everyone

This all has to do with Statistics. The only thing that is wrong is Mu and Sigma. You only use those parameters when talking about the population as a whole. As the OP said, Mu is around 20-25 and sigma is probably like 1-5. For an individual player, you use Mean and Standard Deviation. When you win games constantly, your SD decreases because you are narrowing your skill down to a certain point. Same thing happens if you lose games constantly. the only way to raise your SD is to play inconsistently such as wining and losing such as win, lose, win lose, lose, lose, win, win, lose, win, lose...and so on.

Although this system of trueskill doesn't necessarily work all the time. It's all based on something called a Normal Distribution. Think of this like a bell shaped graph with the Mu being in the center. So picture it like this.

X= level of players as a whole (so all players that play halo 3 MM)

Now lets use these HYPOTHETICAL numbers.

X is approximately Normal with Mu=25 and Signma=3

Now since the Mu is 25 we go out 3 Sigmas each way so it would be (14-34) <--this says that 99% of all the halo 3 players are within these levels. Now that would be true in a perfect world but unfortunately the distribution for halo 3 isnt approximatly Normal (no distrubution can ever be Normal). We call the distribution of the halo 3 levels a Skewed Distribution

A skewed distribution looks somewhat like this:

IIIIIIII
IIIIIIIIIIIII
IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII

To the left are the lower levels and to the right are the higher levels.
What the trueskill system does is it uses a normal distribution for a skewed distribution, which doesn't give accurate results (tell that to a statistics teacher).

This is why there are some problems such as when people are stuck at a certain level or are be deranked out of no where.

Hope this helps some of you guys better understand the system

  • 03.06.2008 5:01 PM PDT
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Thanks alot Jay, your a legend

  • 03.06.2008 8:11 PM PDT