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This topic has moved here: Subject: In depth explanation of the Halo 3 skill ranking system.
  • Subject: In depth explanation of the Halo 3 skill ranking system.
Subject: In depth explanation of the Halo 3 skill ranking system.

Posted by: DS Kristoba
... the only way to raise your SD is to play inconsistently such as wining and losing such as win, lose, win lose, lose, lose, win, win, lose, win, lose...and so on.
Nice post and pretty close but TrueSkill adjusts sigma a little bit "between" each game. This is done to keep it from getting to 0 and also allows the system to recognize skill changes as stated by MS. Also, simply winning and losing every other game won't necessarily be inconsistent to TrueSkill. It predicts the outcome of the game when setting up the match. It is whether or not you perform as predicated that determines your consistency.

That's why I can kind of say going on a winning streak will be unpredictable because there is a very good chance that TrueSkill predicted you to lose some of those games. Now, if I lose against higher skilled opponents and win against lower skilled opponents, I will not only gain very little Mu but my sigma will be getting lowered. So it appears I am playing inconsistent when in reality, I am playing consistent and performing how the system expects me to perform indicating I am at my correct skill.

  • 03.07.2008 5:35 AM PDT
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Posted by: Jay120171
Posted by: Baaaaaaaaaaaaah
You sure about that one Jay? Based on the formulas, the only way I could see you raise sigma is by never losing period. I know with the playlist update yesterday they might have tweaked something, but otherwise I am at a loss as to how this could happen. Microsoft outright said they don't take streaks into account.

Sorry if I missed some new info recently.
There is some new info available by going to the Inside Bungie menu item up there and selecting Publications. They have a PowerPoint on MM in H3. There is some info about what Bungie did to modify TrueSkill. One item of interest was the fact they used a 'performance modifier' to prevent people from ever reaching convergence and allowing their skill to remain fluid. I am guessing by increasing the amount of sigma that gets added back in during each game.

They also stated that the first 50-100 games of a playlist have their skill updates factored down. This will slow skill progression and give the player a 'hill climbing' experience. Similar to what is/was done to mixed skilled parties.

Also, it's not that streaks are taken in to account but the fact someone is on a winning streak is an indicator or them winning games the system thinks they shouldn't - unpredictable. Also, MS states that once you reach convergence, it will take a large amount of games (100 or more) for the system to recognize an increase in your ability and then allow you to level up. This statement shows that it is possible to get your sigma higher which would then allow your skill level to become fluid again. In other words, your sigma would go up, the MM system would then get you in some 'key match-ups' where you can get a big MU boost if you win, etc. So, we have Bungie preventing convergence already (assume by using sigma), a possibility you can increase your sigma anyway and a player winning games they shouldn't be.

Then again, I could be totally wrong and full of BS :)


I finally got a chance to read the PPT Presentation. Very interesting...thanks for letting me know about it.

Some of the things we always suspected were finally factualized:
-ties increase rank
-19% of players stopped playing after 20 games...causing left skew in distribution
-k=4

I'm really wondering what they did to the system in this past playlist update....seems like they may have messed with the dynamics factor.

  • 03.07.2008 8:45 PM PDT
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So does this that if i beat guys with a higher skill, I get more skill than if I win x number of games against low-ranking players?
If so that would explain why I got to be a level 31 so fast.

  • 03.07.2008 9:01 PM PDT
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well i think the system should evaluate skill based on individual skill as opposed to win/lose.

why? because people are starting to stop playing halo. i stopped playing for a little bit them came back to a level 33. i sucked and brought everybody down with me. i'm doing way better now, but i can't help but feel that other's are doing the same.

if skill is based entirely on win/loss, then that isn't fair for the guy who really is fuggin good but can't progress because everybody else on his team just simply sucks. so basically what i'm saying is that if you keep on playing with people who are just coming back to the game (which is seeming a lot more common now-a-days), then you're doomed.

k/d ratio, # of kills, placing, mvp - THIS STUFF SHOULD MATTER. I play mostly TS but now it's all to often that you always get those really sucky guys on your team. given, some times i'm lucky enough to play with good players, but that's not consistent. so with the fluctuation of good/bad people on your team, you can never be consistent in your wins... which i guess means my sigma is doomed and i'll be stuck between 33-36 forever, WHICH SUCKS, which means i'm just going to stop playing halo altogether. i mean i guess i could go to playing lonewolves since that's the only place where the system makes sense... but there i'm only a lvl 16 and my sigma must be low because i'm not ranking up quickly.

what i'm saying is that to get around the whole people just suck on your team factor start basing skill progression and the actual skill of the player. i've been there where i go 15+ k/d and mvp but everybody level's up but me. that happens, and it's NOT FUGGIN FAIR!

/rant

  • 03.07.2008 11:03 PM PDT
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Posted by: Punk N00dl35
So does this that if i beat guys with a higher skill, I get more skill than if I win x number of games against low-ranking players?
If so that would explain why I got to be a level 31 so fast.


Yes. The amount of MU you gain depends on the MU of the others you play.

  • 03.07.2008 11:51 PM PDT
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Lone wolves tests your abilities to a certain point but the people who win lone wolves at the highest levels get their kills and take everyone elses. It's just how that works. See a fight between 3 people, throw a grenade= at least a double plus BR the last= triple. Very little effort and 3 quick kills. It's really a contest of who can keep their kills and steal the most from others too.

  • 03.08.2008 7:04 AM PDT
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Thank you SOOOOO much!!! That helps alot!

  • 03.08.2008 4:56 PM PDT

NY Giants
Miami Heat

There is no system to make it even I want on a 10 game losing streak today and I was MVP of whole game each time (and lost every one) We always got slaughtered

  • 03.08.2008 9:38 PM PDT
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That was really helpful, thank you

  • 03.11.2008 5:00 PM PDT
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Halo map building tools...

  • 03.11.2008 5:32 PM PDT
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quick question didnt have the time to read through every post but i was wondering... does playing social affect either mu or sigma??? or will playing social matches affect your ability or rate of leveling up in a ranked playlist or are those win/loss ratio's kept separate??thank youu

  • 03.12.2008 2:55 AM PDT
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Once your lost in Twilights Blue you don't find the way; the way finds you.

Quality post here. I now know why im stuck around 44/45. Im too consistant & playing with mates who are slightly lower rank than me.

Cheers for the info.

  • 03.12.2008 5:00 AM PDT

Posted by: S2kSiX
quick question didnt have the time to read through every post but i was wondering... does playing social affect either mu or sigma??? or will playing social matches affect your ability or rate of leveling up in a ranked playlist or are those win/loss ratio's kept separate??thank youu
Nope, each playlist is tracked separately.

  • 03.12.2008 6:41 AM PDT
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Can someone simplify/summarize this for me?
I have the problem of not leveling when I win a Team Slayer game and occasionally leveling down after I win..
But I dont understand this mu and signa thing..

[Edited on 03.12.2008 9:09 AM PDT]

  • 03.12.2008 8:48 AM PDT
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Posted by: houschbanilla
Can someone simplify/summarize this for me?
I have the problem of not leveling when I win a Team Slayer game and occasionally leveling down after I win..
But I dont understand this mu and signa thing..


check here...jay summarized it a bit better:

Jay's Skill Summary

  • 03.12.2008 12:24 PM PDT

thx alot i was wondering about that for a while cuz i almost always get more kills and have a better K/D spread than most ppl i play TS with but they rank up faster then me.
i just have one question that was prolly already answered somewhere in the 46 pages. but im a major grade 2 and my highest skill at this moment is 33 are you saying in reality my actual skill is above that?

(sry bout all the typo's im kinda in a rush atm)

[Edited on 03.12.2008 1:44 PM PDT]

  • 03.12.2008 1:44 PM PDT

thank you. but this doesnt make the system any better.

  • 03.12.2008 1:50 PM PDT

-MC enna

Thank you sooo much you have awnsered the one question no one could awnser. A million thank yous. Just a question how did you come upon this info.

  • 03.12.2008 3:29 PM PDT
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Posted by: BeefyKnight
i just have one question that was prolly already answered somewhere in the 46 pages. but im a major grade 2 and my highest skill at this moment is 33 are you saying in reality my actual skill is above that?


If you have played enough games your posted skill is likely very close, if not identical to your behind the scenes skill. You can change both by winning.

  • 03.12.2008 3:46 PM PDT
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Posted by: VastArmagedon
Thank you sooo much you have awnsered the one question no one could awnser. A million thank yous. Just a question how did you come upon this info.


It's publically posted in Microsofts website, and was further compiled and expalined by the OP and many volunteers (especially Jay).

  • 03.12.2008 3:47 PM PDT
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in english please. just kidding!!!!! very nice job. very imformative, very.

  • 03.13.2008 9:54 AM PDT
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can anyone tell me why i go 88-0 on a new account and im only a 45..
i was at 76 wins on my 45 and 12 games latter im still on my 45.. thats why i dont like halo 3 anymore sorry bungie.. plz fix your ranking system..

  • 03.13.2008 5:34 PM PDT
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I wouldn't complain if I were you. My friend has won all 110 of his games with all of them being in the same hopper and he is only a 33. I really think if anyone is that consistant that they should be leveled up. How can it be fair that a person with a 47 of 57 record can be a 38 but still he is only a 33? And shouldn't the game take into account that he usually wins by 5x score of the oposing team? I'm sure Bungie and Microsoft do everything for good reasons but it really seems messed up sometimes. Btw it took him about 40 games to get from a 26 to a 27 . . . have fun getting that 46.

[Edited on 03.13.2008 8:10 PM PDT]

  • 03.13.2008 8:06 PM PDT

Posted by: Gear x Bee Are
can anyone tell me why i go 88-0 on a new account and im only a 45..
i was at 76 wins on my 45 and 12 games latter im still on my 45.. thats why i dont like halo 3 anymore sorry bungie.. plz fix your ranking system..
I didn't go through all of your games but have you played with the same partner for all of them? If you have, it can really slow you down and in some cases people get stuck at level 22 in TD when only playing with the same parter. One of you has played some games with someone else because you are different levels but it looks like the bulk of your games are with each other.

Also, the games you pull against the higher skilled peeps are the ones that matter the most. When you get 45+, it can be hard to pull in games against higher skilled opponents and can take a while if you have to play lower skilled opponents a lot. Also, your partner is 5 levels below you so you are pulling in opponents with an average skill lower than yours a lot of the time.

The main thing is just keep winning - I know it obvious but the games against the higher level players are the ones that will give you the biggest boost. Just make sure you don't lose to lower level and beat the higher level. The games against equal skilled opponents are not as critical but beating lower skilled people will not get you much credit.

  • 03.14.2008 5:25 AM PDT

Thank for the post I've been looking far an wide for a post like this but it always just sends me to the ranking system of exp. Pretty simple to understand that you win you get 1 exp, you lose you get 0 exp, you quit you get -1 exp. I'm sure alot of other people were having that problem as well until this little golden nugget of information popped up on my screen THANKS!!! I've been stuck at 46 what seems like forever now. Atleast now I know why, I guess I'll start looking at there levels before I complain whether or not I level up..

[Edited on 03.15.2008 1:43 PM PDT]

  • 03.15.2008 1:38 PM PDT