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  • Subject: In depth explanation of the Halo 3 skill ranking system.
Subject: In depth explanation of the Halo 3 skill ranking system.
  • gamertag: Oml3t
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What I am, is trapped. And I've been trapped for so long that I don't know what it feels like...to be free.

Are your most recent games weighted more into ranking up than your past history in said playlist?

  • 06.19.2008 12:47 AM PDT
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Posted by: Domino Theory 2
Are your most recent games weighted more into ranking up than your past history in said playlist?


I believe the literature is that all games are treated as equals. However, thats not to say Bungie has not made some small tweaks to the system...but it honestly doesnn't appear they have done anything major.

  • 06.19.2008 6:59 AM PDT
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Posted by: maximus_asinus
Posted by: Baaaaaaaaaaaaah
So you are suggesting Generals should just automatically be ranked 50 in every playlist without having to rank up? Hardly seems reasonable. True Skill, as far as Bungie uses it, is per playlist only. Its not designed to give you the most optimal match across all playlists based on your performance on one only.
The system should factor in every playlist AND the players progress in the single playlist when it is determining an acceptable match, it would give a more accurate depiction of where the player is at (of course playlists with little to no playtime wouldn't be taken into account). If you've reached 50 in one playlist you SHOULD be treated different than a player who can barely reach 30. Match them with other players their skill. I am sure there are plenty of level 45-50s playing in each playlist. Just look at it from this perspective; if Player A has achieved 50 in Playlist A and Playlist B and is going for a 50 in Playlist C should he be matched against Player B who highest skill is 30 and has yet to reach a 50 in any playlist at all? The answer is no, because Player A has far more experience than Player B. Now if you're Player B with a rank of 30 and you've been matched against Player A variants constantly in Playlist C you're probably not going to move anywhere in the playlist unless you show a vast improvement (sort of how the system intended it to be I guess, but it is less than ideal now with the number of boosters and second accounters running around). You've just become a stepping stone for each player that moves through this playlist. You might not be as good as the 50s you're being matched with game after game, but you COULD be better than the 35s that you aren't playing. The system should establish pools; groupings of players with relatively close overall Trueskill (lets say, within 5 points seperating the beginning of Pool A and the beginning of Pool B). Like swimmers in a real pool it would have your amateurs on one end, and the strong swimmers on the other. Players would be matched with people inside their pool to determine who is stronger, and when the time comes, when the player should be elevated into the next pool. So Player A is back, he has gotten his 50s in two playlists, he should be playing in Pool Z and not be matching against players in Pool M who are in the same playlist, the same as Pool M can't play Pool A and so on and so forth. The only hiccup in my idea would be the lack of players in Pool Z in a certain playlist would result in a harder time finding a match, but I think it is more acceptable to punish the few over the larger population.


You make some great common sense points about the issue. I don't enjoy gettings steaktaculared by 4 Generals either, but realistically it doesn't happen all that often. However, im not so sure it is fair to good players that they can't experience the ranking up experience in each playlist. It was the same way in Halo 2. Also, someone who is a 40 in saw LW's may truely only be a 25 in Team type games.

Remember, Trueskill needs you to lose a certain amount of games over your first 50-100 to get you to your true rank as quickly as possible. Having Generals roll over you provides some of those. I don't think it is game breaking or anything.

  • 06.19.2008 7:13 AM PDT
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I think the Trueskill is just, overall, crap! I have never seen a ranking system that has so many flaws and that millions of people complain about, including me. My friend, who is not as good as me, made a new account and played TS with me and a friend. Every game he played, I have played. Guess what level he is? He went from 1 to 47, and he is only a 40 on his other account. I went from a 47 to a 48 in the same games. Obviously, the Trueskill had him at a 40, yet now it says he is a 46, about to be a 50 soon!

P.S: I find it complete bullcrap that if you play with friends all the time your ranking slows down! what the "f" Bungie! I thought Halo was a social game meant to be played with your friends. Obviously, Bungie decided that in a social game like Halo 3 your friends should just holdd you back.

[Edited on 06.19.2008 9:05 AM PDT]

  • 06.19.2008 9:00 AM PDT
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i hope ur right

YOU CAN HAS RECON

  • 06.19.2008 1:30 PM PDT
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Posted by: PatPat007
I think the Trueskill is just, overall, crap! I have never seen a ranking system that has so many flaws and that millions of people complain about, including me. My friend, who is not as good as me, made a new account and played TS with me and a friend. Every game he played, I have played. Guess what level he is? He went from 1 to 47, and he is only a 40 on his other account. I went from a 47 to a 48 in the same games. Obviously, the Trueskill had him at a 40, yet now it says he is a 46, about to be a 50 soon!

P.S: I find it complete bullcrap that if you play with friends all the time your ranking slows down! what the "f" Bungie! I thought Halo was a social game meant to be played with your friends. Obviously, Bungie decided that in a social game like Halo 3 your friends should just holdd you back.


The greatest downfall of Trueskill is it cannot recognize a skill change quick enough. For someone that has played a lot and has say improved by 10 levels, I suspect it will take true skill 400+ games to figure that out, whereas with a new account they could reach that skill level in less than 100-200 games. It would ne nice if sigma was dynamic rather than ever decreasing...but it is the way it is.

However, as usual, this thread is not to discuss downfalls, it's simply to describe the inner workings of the system.

  • 06.19.2008 2:21 PM PDT
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What do u mean by the sigma is ever decreasing?? And, say that hypothetically i needed to win 10 games to go up, granted the people I play always have the same level, if I win 5 games then lose 1 or 2 does it just restart and take longer like I have to win 15 games?

  • 06.19.2008 5:11 PM PDT
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What I am, is trapped. And I've been trapped for so long that I don't know what it feels like...to be free.

Posted by: PatPat007
What do u mean by the sigma is ever decreasing?? And, say that hypothetically i needed to win 10 games to go up, granted the people I play always have the same level, if I win 5 games then lose 1 or 2 does it just restart and take longer like I have to win 15 games?


Sigma is ever decreasing because it can never increase. You win games to "maintain" sigma, you lose games to lower sigma. Sigma is the "uncertainty" factor in leveling up. Your uncertainty level is VERY HIGH when you first start out in a ranked playlist so you want to keep that uncertainty high so you can bounce up the levels. I had a VERY HIGH sigma in Team SWAT (winning 94 percent of my first 70 games). Thus I had a very high sigma and BREEZED to 46 in SWAT. Now I'm starting to lose some games, taking my sigma down, thus lowering my super-fast leveling.

The one problem with the TrueSkill is that it takes a ridiculous amount of games for the system to recognize a change in your skill. It's like a very ignorant person; it's going to take a long talk to convince him otherwise. ;)

EDIT: To answer your question about the hypothetical situation, losing one or two in between won't "reset" your journey to the next rank. Remember, sigma is the "uncertainty" factor. So if you did something (for example: losing a game) that the TrueSkill didn't expect you to, that may play in your favor.

[Edited on 06.20.2008 11:27 AM PDT]

  • 06.20.2008 11:25 AM PDT

Posted by: Domino Theory 2
Sigma is ever decreasing because it can never increase.
There are circumstances where your sigma can increase. The system does add some sigma back in prior to each game to keep it form reaching 0 and is also the current mechanism allowing the system to detect a players skill change.

Normally it will always be adjusted down but if a player is winning games he is supposed to lose, his uncertainty will not be adjusted down much, then some is added back in prior to the next game thus increasing it.

  • 06.20.2008 11:37 AM PDT
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Posted by: Jay120171
Posted by: Domino Theory 2
Sigma is ever decreasing because it can never increase.
There are circumstances where your sigma can increase. The system does add some sigma back in prior to each game to keep it form reaching 0 and is also the current mechanism allowing the system to detect a players skill change.

Normally it will always be adjusted down but if a player is winning games he is supposed to lose, his uncertainty will not be adjusted down much, then some is added back in prior to the next game thus increasing it.


In fairness though, with the exception of people that have never lost, it seems that the small sigma increases after the calculation is run through are almost insignificant.

I have been thinking though, if they were to bump up that variable a bit, it might appease a lot of the people that are upset with the system. Stale sigma seems to be the root of a lot fo the problems. However, it would probably have the unfortunate effect of dropping Microsoft's new account purchases!

[Edited on 06.20.2008 3:07 PM PDT]

  • 06.20.2008 12:58 PM PDT
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thanx for the explanation i appreciae it

  • 06.20.2008 5:50 PM PDT
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forgive me if i didnt understand something or if somebody already asked a similar question..but basically me and my friend started brand new tags just for doubles...we've won 41 out of 43 games but cant get past 18. from reading this i get that we just havent played enough games..my sigma should still be very high like it starts on a brand new tag, so it seems that i shouldnt have a problem leveling up. so the only thing that sticks out is that i havent played the "50" games that the thread recommends. is that right?

  • 06.20.2008 6:17 PM PDT
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Posted by: xX PhuRion
forgive me if i didnt understand something or if somebody already asked a similar question..but basically me and my friend started brand new tags just for doubles...we've won 41 out of 43 games but cant get past 18. from reading this i get that we just havent played enough games..my sigma should still be very high like it starts on a brand new tag, so it seems that i shouldnt have a problem leveling up. so the only thing that sticks out is that i havent played the "50" games that the thread recommends. is that right?


Your problem is you keep playing with the same guy. You need to switch it up for a while.

  • 06.20.2008 10:50 PM PDT
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I've tried to read through most of the thread before asking these few questions and didn't managed to see much if anything about them. Forgive me if I just missed those posts, and please if you remember relatively where the answers were, point me in the right direction.

Would hopping from playlist to playlist help to increase your sigma?
*edit* I had a theory for this, but just noticed some stored information about my past games and my theroy fell apart. Still curious if it does though.

Why would the system decrease your ranking if you lost to a game full of players ranked significantly higher than you?
I recently lost a game in Lone Wolves ranked as a 39, and I was playing against 5 others ranked 41 and 42. I lost the game horribly because obviously they were better than me, but post game I lost my 39 skill level. I can't understand why I should lose the level for losing to someone that the system says is better than me. It seems like if the system says a person should most likely beat me and they do, then there isn't any reason to decrease my level because what the system predicted was exactly what happen.

Does the game have any effect on the system whatsoever?
I seem to gain more levels playing strictly Slayer games than playing altered goal games such as oddball, king of the hill, and swords. Everything I read would suggest that the type of game has no effect but I wonder if anyone else has noticed a similar trend. I think it would make sense because sometimes the goal oriented games require less accuracy and more skill in hiding from your opponents and so basically they require less skill.

[Edited on 06.21.2008 2:08 AM PDT]

  • 06.21.2008 2:00 AM PDT

Get WorkPLaced!!

Wow very nice post, it's so informative and now I finally have a better understanding of it.

  • 06.21.2008 4:36 AM PDT

Posted by: Baaaaaaaaaaaaah
In fairness though, with the exception of people that have never lost, it seems that the small sigma increases after the calculation is run through are almost insignificant.

I have been thinking though, if they were to bump up that variable a bit, it might appease a lot of the people that are upset with the system. Stale sigma seems to be the root of a lot fo the problems. However, it would probably have the unfortunate effect of dropping Microsoft's new account purchases!
I previously felt the same way you do until some recent info was brought to my attention and looking over the MS pages for like the 600th time. Even after a player has matured his level in a playlist, winning/losing a large amount of games in a row can raise sigma. MS states between 50-100 games for the system to be able to track a players improved skill. I take this to mean that the player has won/lost enough to get his uncertainty back up a bit.

A few weeks ago I created a thread asking in Opti about using streaks to both reward players who win a streak of games and hamper people who lose a streak of games. It dealt with the boosting problem in TD (losing a large number of games to boost a new account) and helping those that seem to get stuck trying to go up. There was some support but there was also difficulty in proving how streaks are statistically significant. I believe they are when applied to H3 MM but others did not.

That thread is here

This week I have been participating in another thread where the OP's idea was something I didn't agree with but I did eventually toss out the idea of increasing the amount of sigma that is currently added back in before each match. We know this is the current method of tracking skill increase and the idea is to get the system to be more responsive and prevent this "feeling" of level lock for some players.

That thread is here.

If you are bored enough, you can check them out and see what some of the discussion was about.

  • 06.21.2008 7:01 AM PDT

Posted by: l3onsaitree
I've tried to read through most of the thread before asking these few questions and didn't managed to see much if anything about them. Forgive me if I just missed those posts, and please if you remember relatively where the answers were, point me in the right direction.

Would hopping from playlist to playlist help to increase your sigma?
*edit* I had a theory for this, but just noticed some stored information about my past games and my theroy fell apart. Still curious if it does though.

Why would the system decrease your ranking if you lost to a game full of players ranked significantly higher than you?
I recently lost a game in Lone Wolves ranked as a 39, and I was playing against 5 others ranked 41 and 42. I lost the game horribly because obviously they were better than me, but post game I lost my 39 skill level. I can't understand why I should lose the level for losing to someone that the system says is better than me. It seems like if the system says a person should most likely beat me and they do, then there isn't any reason to decrease my level because what the system predicted was exactly what happen.

Does the game have any effect on the system whatsoever?
I seem to gain more levels playing strictly Slayer games than playing altered goal games such as oddball, king of the hill, and swords. Everything I read would suggest that the type of game has no effect but I wonder if anyone else has noticed a similar trend. I think it would make sense because sometimes the goal oriented games require less accuracy and more skill in hiding from your opponents and so basically they require less skill.
No, each playlist has it's own mu/sigma values.

Usually it's from a DNF right before the game you go down in. Although it is possible you still lose a little MU depending on the MU/sigma of the 41/42's. A loss is still a loss so to speak so if you were barely a 39, it may have been just enough to take you down.

No, the gametypes (slayer/objective) all use the exact same way to determine skill level. It's isn't easier or harder to level up in slayer compared to objective.

  • 06.21.2008 7:36 AM PDT
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  • 06.21.2008 12:56 PM PDT

nice nice nice 10/10

  • 06.21.2008 1:12 PM PDT

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Bunqie Jumpis GREEK LIKE ME, also, nice post!

  • 06.21.2008 1:39 PM PDT
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Posted by: Jay120171
Posted by: Baaaaaaaaaaaaah
In fairness though, with the exception of people that have never lost, it seems that the small sigma increases after the calculation is run through are almost insignificant.

I have been thinking though, if they were to bump up that variable a bit, it might appease a lot of the people that are upset with the system. Stale sigma seems to be the root of a lot fo the problems. However, it would probably have the unfortunate effect of dropping Microsoft's new account purchases!
I previously felt the same way you do until some recent info was brought to my attention and looking over the MS pages for like the 600th time. Even after a player has matured his level in a playlist, winning/losing a large amount of games in a row can raise sigma. MS states between 50-100 games for the system to be able to track a players improved skill. I take this to mean that the player has won/lost enough to get his uncertainty back up a bit.

A few weeks ago I created a thread asking in Opti about using streaks to both reward players who win a streak of games and hamper people who lose a streak of games. It dealt with the boosting problem in TD (losing a large number of games to boost a new account) and helping those that seem to get stuck trying to go up. There was some support but there was also difficulty in proving how streaks are statistically significant. I believe they are when applied to H3 MM but others did not.

That thread is here

This week I have been participating in another thread where the OP's idea was something I didn't agree with but I did eventually toss out the idea of increasing the amount of sigma that is currently added back in before each match. We know this is the current method of tracking skill increase and the idea is to get the system to be more responsive and prevent this "feeling" of level lock for some players.

That thread is here.

If you are bored enough, you can check them out and see what some of the discussion was about.


Great threads...I actually wasn't aware of some of the boosting techniques being used. Pretty unfortunate.

  • 06.21.2008 3:33 PM PDT
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Posted by: Baaaaaaaaaaaaah
Posted by: xX PhuRion
forgive me if i didnt understand something or if somebody already asked a similar question..but basically me and my friend started brand new tags just for doubles...we've won 41 out of 43 games but cant get past 18. from reading this i get that we just havent played enough games..my sigma should still be very high like it starts on a brand new tag, so it seems that i shouldnt have a problem leveling up. so the only thing that sticks out is that i havent played the "50" games that the thread recommends. is that right?


Your problem is you keep playing with the same guy. You need to switch it up for a while.

alright i see your point but why would playing with the same guy affect anything?

  • 06.21.2008 6:08 PM PDT
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Posted by: xX PhuRion
Posted by: Baaaaaaaaaaaaah
Posted by: xX PhuRion
forgive me if i didnt understand something or if somebody already asked a similar question..but basically me and my friend started brand new tags just for doubles...we've won 41 out of 43 games but cant get past 18. from reading this i get that we just havent played enough games..my sigma should still be very high like it starts on a brand new tag, so it seems that i shouldnt have a problem leveling up. so the only thing that sticks out is that i havent played the "50" games that the thread recommends. is that right?


Your problem is you keep playing with the same guy. You need to switch it up for a while.

alright i see your point but why would playing with the same guy affect anything?


It relates to sigma. If you and your buddy never switch it up, you team simply doesn't gain much from the losing team on any win you get. You will both have high sigma. It is ideal for you to have all other players with high sigma, while you yourself has low sigma.

  • 06.21.2008 6:42 PM PDT
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bungie is the greatest

  • 06.22.2008 5:40 AM PDT
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What about all this boosting and deranking does that actually work? You said its a bell curve so does it

  • 06.22.2008 5:53 AM PDT