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Halo 2 Vista's support has been 100% dropped.
meaning their servers have been shutdown, no one can connect to anything as of now.
you are best activating it, by the live interface.
"Activate Later", then try to activate it while running the game, the Live interface should pop-up asking for the CD Key.
and then once down, you can enjoy playing offline campaign for infinity.
Unofficial source
[Edited on 09.15.2009 9:25 AM PDT]