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It's actually hard to pick. In Halo obviously a good connection makes all the difference, but if you are at least 5 greenbars then it's not that different from playing on host, and a 5bar and a 6bar going head to head in a gunfight, it's still pretty fair.
However in COD, the difference between a 3 green bar connection and a 4bar is ridiculous, and that pretty much dictates the outcomes of most gunfights. This is because of 'flinch', a feature that the gooses who made the game probably thought made the game more balanced when they playtested it on LAN, but it just ruins the game online where latency is a factor.
Example: you come face to face with an enemy. You have 3bar, they have 4. You shoot first.
Remember that Captain Hook could pick up a controller and do well at it. It is the noob's game for this generation. So if you can snap down the sights and fire the moment you see them, chances are they can too.
So now it becomes a split-second coin toss on who got the first shot in. Even if you got the first shot, the other player has better latency so his bullet actually registers first.
Now you get hit, and you 'flinch'. What this does is completely throw off your aim, and even if my sights still seem to be on the enemy, my bullets rarely hit. So even if I shot first, his bullet registers before mine, I flinch, and none of my bullets hit him. Then, on the killcam, my character looks like he is shooting at the roof.
Then there are times when you pump bullets into your enemy, they kill you without taking a hit and on the killcam it doesn't even show you shooting.
The fast nature of killing/dying in Call of Duty makes it incredibly connection based. Yet in Halo, being yellow bar or red bar means your enemies eat a ridiculous amount of bullets, you take damage from grenades that are nowhere near you, you get shot through walls, and you won't win a close-range fight that results in a beatdown.
All in all I would have to say Halo, because in Call of Duty it doesn't matter if you die, you don't drop rank for a loss. The only thing you might care about it affecting is your K/D.
If you care about rank and enjoy playing Halo competitively, then connection is a real issue. I don't care about rank but I like competitive play, even though I'm bad.
So Halo for me, and -blam!- that was a lot of typing!