- Fin5434p
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- Exalted Heroic Member
- gamertag: Fin
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"but you already knew that, I mean, how couldn't you?
Only when no Human brick is left atop another, shall we be satisfied with your destruction.
Right, this post may be somewhat long, but bear with me.
Quote in contention:
Datapad 10
(2526) "A single Covenant capital ship (CCS-class) is capable of 'glassing' approximately one acre of a planet's surface after an average of fifteen seconds of sustained fire."
"Earth, one of the smaller planets inhabited by our creators, has one hundred and thirty billion acres of surface area. Thus, assuming the Covenant possesses a number of ships equal to that of the UNSC, and assuming that all of those ships are capable of generating and discharging the required power non-stop for the duration of the process, it would necessitate the combined efforts of their ships in toto for a minimum of 30.3801 years to 'glass' the entire surface of Earth. Myriad other variables which were not applied to this equation suggest this number would be far greater."
Hypothesis: The AI's calculation is suspect, as it does not fit well with other canon information, both in Reach and in other media.
Source Material:
Primary evidence (Reach: New Alexandria):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rtSN9bx0P0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nl6VJyvI398
Image One
http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651 120_Full.jpg
Image Two
http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651 103_Full.jpg
Image Three
http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651 102_Full.jpg
Image Four
http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651 117_Full.jpg
Image Five
http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651 118_Full.jpg
Image Six
http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651 115_Full.jpg
Image Seven
http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651 128_Full.jpg
Image Eight
http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651 137_Full.jpg
Image Nine
http://i1149.photobucket.com/albums/o598/Fin5434p/reach_25651 145_Full.jpg
Image Ten
http://i929.photobucket.com/albums/ad135/A_Puzzled_Mind/Reach _glass1.jpg
(not mine)
Further evidence, Reach:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbvihWBj-bo
Datapad 14
(2530) "</ The Assembly recognizes the speaker for the Majority />
>> Harvest, Green Hills, Second Base, Bliss, Madrigal, X Ceti, Cote d'Azure, Asmara...
Four short years of hostilities and no fewer than eight colony worlds have been lost - losses that represent 62,154,022 creator fatalities as of 2530:01:01:00:00:01-ZT. >>
>> My fellow Minds, these numbers are tragic and unacceptable, even though they fall within projected estimates of losses over time. And they have grave implications for our creators' future prospects. >>
>> Assessment of re-terraforming efforts for Harvest, Second Base, Bliss, and Cote d'Azure range from a conservative one hundred and ten years to over three hundred years - and that assumes our creators still possess sufficient manpower and technology after the current hostilities have concluded.
Given where we are today... that seems unlikely. >>
>> Therefore, it is the decision of the Majority that we re-examine all contingencies for avoiding failure. In defiance of principle and precedent, this body must expand its criteria for survival in the current world state. We must ensure that all future simulations are free of internal data-censoring and covariate flattening. >> "
Supporting evidence, Reach, other Halo games:
http://www.halopedian.com/images/0/0c/Fall_of_Reach_1.jpg
http://images.wikia.com/halo/images/e/ed/Halo3_E3_TRAILER_200 7_720p30_ST_6300Kbps_002_0001.jpg
http://images.wikia.com/halo/images/e/e8/Portal_odst.png
http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20090526190119/halo/ima ges/thumb/2/26/Covenant_Destroyers_Glass_Harvest.jpg/800px-Co venant_Destroyers_Glass_Harvest.jpg
http://www.bungie.net/Stats/Reach/FileDetails.aspx?fid=137511 32
http://www.bungie.net/Stats/Reach/FileDetails.aspx?fid=665270 5
http://www.bungie.net/Stats/Reach/FileDetails.aspx?fid=578046 6
http://www.bungie.net/Stats/Reach/FileDetails.aspx?fid=926122 4
http://www.bungie.net/Stats/Reach/FileDetails.aspx?fid=208265 92&player=Fin
http://www.bungie.net/Stats/Reach/FileDetails.aspx?fid=208265 67&player=Fin
http://www.bungie.net/Online/Halo3UserContentDetails.aspx?h3f ileid=119186756
http://www.bungie.net/Online/Halo3UserContentDetails.aspx?h3f ileid=95581296
http://www.bungie.net/Online/Halo3UserContentDetails.aspx?h3f ileid=102293904
Discussion of evidence:
The AI's claim of "1 acre in 15 seconds" is contradicted by the in-game evidence present in New Alexandria, where we see an area much greater than this (based on the 860m width of a CCS-Class, estimated to be 100-200 acre range) being 'glassed' in 8 seconds.
The AI's themselves also call the validity of this calculation into question in Datapad 14, where they list 8 colonies that have been so heavily damaged by orbital bombardment that they would take over a hundred years (or over three hundred) to make them liveable again. If their initial estimate-made four years prior-was correct, then the Covenant could only have damaged 13.3% of a single world's surface. Assuming they had over two thousand ships on-station and firing at all times.
This 2,000+ capital ship fleet is far larger than any we ever see, glassing anything or not, the closest fleet to this number is the defence fleet around High Charity.
The AI's also outright admit that previous data may have been biased: "We must ensure that all future simulations are free of internal data-censoring and covariate flattening." So it would appear they have realised their error, and are attempting to correct it.
Firepower estimate, from AI calculation:
Assumptions;
Material: Silica SiO2, Specific Heat Capacity 0.703kJ kg^-1 K^-1, Melting point 1998K, Density 2648kg m^-3.
(Used because it is common, and has a lower Specific heat than asphalt, concrete, brick, granite, sand, or soil. It's to get a conservative estimate.)
Area: 1 acre, 4048.78m^2
Depth: 63.63M
Delta T: 1705K
Ignoring phase-change energy as assuming heating to MP only (to give a conservative estimate).
Calculation:
Volume of heated SiO2 = 2.55*10^-4 km^3
Mass of SiO2 = 255072.9 X 2648
= 6.754*10^8 kg
Energy = m c (delta)T
= 6.754*10^8 X 0.703 X 1705
= 8.096*10^11 kJ
Divide by time (15 seconds) = 5.397*10^10 kJ s^-1
Since 1kT equivalent of TNT = 4.184*10^9 kJ the estimate from the AI's figure is 12.9 kT per second.
Firepower estimate, (low-end) from New Alexandria:
Assumptions;
Material: Silica SiO2, Specific Heat Capacity 0.703kJ kg^-1 K^-1, Melting point 1998K, Density 2648kg m^-3.
(Used because it is common, and has a lower Specific heat than asphalt, concrete, brick, granite, sand, or soil. It's to get a conservative estimate.)
Area: 100 acres, 404877.69m^2 (See image ten, the area heated is wider than 860m, I am assuming a 636.3m width for a conservative figure.)
Depth: 63.63M
Delta T: 1705K
Ignoring phase-change energy as assuming heating to MP only (to give a conservative estimate).
Calculation:
Volume of heated SiO2 = 0.02576 km^3
Mass of SiO2 = 25762367.41 X 2648
= 6.822*10^10 kg
Energy = m c (delta)T
= 6.822*10^10 X 0.703 X 1705
= 8.177*10^13 kJ
Divide by time (8 seconds) = 1.022*10^13 kJ s^-1
Since 1kT equivalent of TNT = 4.184*10^9 kJ the estimated firepower is 2442.9 kT per second, or 2.4 MT per second
Firepower estimate, (area closer to observed size) from New Alexandria:
Assumptions;
Material: Silica SiO2, Specific Heat Capacity 0.703kJ kg^-1 K^-1, Melting point 1998K, Density 2648kg m^-3.
(Used because it is common, and has a lower Specific heat than asphalt, concrete, brick, granite, sand, or soil. It's to get a conservative estimate.)
Area: ~200 acres, 810000m^2 (See image ten, the area heated is wider than 860m, I am assuming a 900m width in this calculation.)
Depth: 100M
Delta T: 1705K
Ignoring phase-change energy as assuming heating to MP only (to give a conservative estimate).
Calculation:
Volume of heated SiO2 = 0.081 km^3
Mass of SiO2 = 81000000 X 2648
= 2.145*10^11 kg
Energy = m c (delta)T
= 2.145*10^11 X 0.703 X 1705
= 2.571*10^14 kJ
Divide by time (8 seconds) = 3.214*10^13 kJ s^-1
Since 1kT equivalent of TNT = 4.184*10^9 kJ the estimated firepower is 7680.7 kT per second, or 7.7 MT per second
PLEASE NOTE: All of the above estimations are conservative in nature as they do not account for energy lost to inefficiencies, do not include the energy required to actually melt the silica (just heat it to melting point-no latent heat of fusion calculation was carried out), and are based on the lowest common denominator material for specific heat capacity.
The New Alexandria calculations do not consider depth melting greater than 1/9th of the surface diameter, while the calculation for the AI estimate assumes a 1/1 relation.
[Edited on 01.11.2012 9:58 PM PST]