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  • Subject: I think I've cracked why "Destiny" is so secret. -Nul...
Subject: I think I've cracked why "Destiny" is so secret. -Nul...
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  • Exalted Heroic Member

Avid Gamer, Techy and Computer Geek. Studying Computer Forensics & Security. - and yes, I'm jumping over a giant wooden acorn.

This is entirely speculative so I would greatly enjoy seeing your spin on things, but I think I've got a very good hunch as to why Bungie have become so locked up, not even breathing if it meant we would catch a glimpse of the future IP. Sure, it's got an overwhelming element of awesome surprise to it, but I don't think that's exactly why. I'm just going to throw it out there since the most recent viddoc planted it in my mind.

It's going to be a title release for the next-gen (8th) consoles and possibly revealed with them.

No hint to an idea of when we'll see it, because the platforms don't have a date yet either. I can't source it but I swear one of the guys at Bungie said Destiny was a whole new approach for them, and it was going to be big. Well, Bungie's last IP was a big launch being an exclusive, and being a title-launch means you've got the weight of the platform on your shoulders. It just makes perfect sense to me. New IP, new generation-spanning publisher contracts, what fits in well with that? New consoles.

So, think I'm on to something here, stating the obvious, have you beat me to it or think I'm just barking mad?

EDIT:
Here's why I've got the idea that a new gen isn't as far away as some of you think. You're probably gonna' need a pinch of salt though, it IS IGN baring in mind.

DOUBLE EDIT: (Double Points!)
Though this subsequent line from the article does sort of stem my crazy theory.
"Developers are likely to receive development kits based on the system's final configuration in August."

Which means if we're assuming my philosophy then Bungie recieved the kit a year early... Ah well it was a fun idea. I still want to hear your speculations of the new game though!

[Edited on 02.06.2012 4:36 PM PST]

  • 02.06.2012 4:09 PM PDT
Subject: I think I've cracked why "Destiny" is so secret.

Old school Bungie, born and raised,
In the Septagon is where I spend most of my days.
Relaxin', maxin', posting all cool,
Talking about Halo, life and some school.
Got in one little argument, and the mods got scared,
they said "You're gonna get banned and your member title'll be bare!"

I'm not sold on new consoles yet. The proliferation of the internet into consoles have extended their lives with updates and enhancements dramatically, and we've also seen hardware upgrades with the Xbox 360 Elite, slim, and Playstation advances (sorry, but I'm not well versed in the iterations of this console). I also haven't seen games truly push the limitations of the consoles, not like Halo 2 pushed the Xbox. Not to mention that manufacturers hemorrhage profit on consoles for several years due to the long development costs, this past generation especially. If a new generation isn't drastically needed, I don't believe it will show.

I think these clues point towards the next console generation being quite distant in the future, conservatively 3 years, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were still 5 years off.

  • 02.06.2012 4:15 PM PDT

Ready are you? What know you of ready? For eight hundred years have I trained Jedi. My own council will I keep on who is to be trained. A Jedi must have the deepest commitment, the most serious mind. This one a long time have I watched. All his life has he looked away... to the future, to the horizon. Never his mind on where he was. Hmm? What he was doing. Hmph. Adventure. Heh. Excitement. Heh. A Jedi craves not these things. You are reckless.” -Yoda

Or...

When Bungie's enemies/competitors buy the game and play it on their console, it will become self aware and trap them, taking them to Bungie. There they will proceed to tie them and shoot in the sun with a giant slingshot.

  • 02.06.2012 4:17 PM PDT

Key

I think there's no way that this is going to be on the new console generation. When exactly do you think the next consoles are coming out? Most estimates are that the 360 will last THROUGH 2015. Do you think Bungie is going to wait 4 years to release something they've already been working on at least conceptually since 2008? Probably not.

And the fact that you're basing at least part of your theory on you maybe possibly remembering one guy in the ViDoc say something that might've been along the lines of "this is a whole new approach" is ludicrous. Hell, if they were just switching genres it'd be a whole new approach. That neither proves nor supports any theory in any way at all.

  • 02.06.2012 4:18 PM PDT
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Talk to the Soul | ~B.B. | Know Your Duardo |  | Hero | ISFJ | 77135 | 94371

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Posted by: prometheus25
I think these clues point towards the next console generation being quite distant in the future, conservatively 3 years, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were still 5 years off.
Agreed. The Kinect was introduced a little over a year ago, as well as a Xbox 360 Slim (or S). As you have said, I don't see a new console coming out for a good while.

  • 02.06.2012 4:19 PM PDT

We're concerned

Cafe|MLP: FiM|Bnet Regulars|FCAW
Got a question, comment, or concern? PM me.

Maybe it is taking so long because it is really just a five-year running April Fool's Day joke.

  • 02.06.2012 4:20 PM PDT
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  • Exalted Heroic Member

Avid Gamer, Techy and Computer Geek. Studying Computer Forensics & Security. - and yes, I'm jumping over a giant wooden acorn.

While I agree that new consoles aren't quite needed I can't help but feel like they've reached their golden age and will most definitely hit a hard imitation this year. If I can I will pull a quote from an MS employee who says the 360 has just about reached its limit, but they have no intention of releasing the new console when they're still pumping out sales left, right and centre.

They do however plan on revealing it this year as do Sony. I'm going to assume we're about 2-3years off before actual release and as for the reveal later this year, it'll just be the codename like 2009's "Project Natal".


- hmm, here's one article; not the one I had in mind though.
I'll keep looking.

[Edited on 02.06.2012 4:27 PM PST]

  • 02.06.2012 4:20 PM PDT

Key


Posted by: DDISAP
While I agree that new consoles aren't quite needed I can't help but feel like they've reached their golden age and will most definitely hit a hard imitation this year. If I can I will pull a quote from an MS employee who says the 360 has just about reached its limit, but they have no intention of releasing the new console when they're still pumping out sales left, right and centre.

They do however plan on revealing it this year as do Sony. I'm going to assume we're about 2-3years off before actual release and as for the reveal later this year, it'll just be the codename like 2009's "Project Natal".
Who cares about what one Microsoft employee says? The fact of the matter is that the company itself has estimated that the 360 will go through 2015. That is a long time for Bungie to not release anything.

  • 02.06.2012 4:22 PM PDT

Кланяються мені!

I also agree. Microsofts plan for the Xbox 360 was until 2015.

Bungie is simply doing what they always do with new titles, being quiet. The new IP is simply in the making. Bungie loves building the suspense. Its a great marketing scheme. They make us drool for it.

  • 02.06.2012 4:27 PM PDT

While ambitious, I am going to have to agree with the general trend of the rest of the replies in this thread. I don't even find myself ready for a new console. I am wholeheartedly ready to back Bungie on whatever Destiny is but I don't think a new console is where it's at.

Still, nice speculation OP.

  • 02.06.2012 4:54 PM PDT

I acknowledge my user name is stupid. However, I promise I'm not.

Disclaimer: The latter is a lie.

I'm definitely not ready for a new console. I'm still very content with the 360, and don't think I'll be desiring a replacement for it, for at least 2-3 years.

I hope Destiny is released on the next-gen consoles.

Posted by: Lobster Fish 2
While ambitious, I am going to have to agree with the general trend of the rest of the replies in this thread. I don't even find myself ready for a new console. I am wholeheartedly ready to back Bungie on whatever Destiny is but I don't think a new console is where it's at.

Still, nice speculation OP.

  • 02.06.2012 5:03 PM PDT
Subject: I think I've cracked why "Destiny" is so secret. -Nul...
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  • Exalted Mythic Member

I came for Halo, but I heard the Tru7h, fought thru Carnage, and stayed for Bungie.

No one cares how much you know, until they know how much you care.--Teddy Roosevelt

no. wrong. so wrong. just, wrong.

  • 02.06.2012 5:21 PM PDT


Posted by: prometheus25
I'm not sold on new consoles yet. The proliferation of the internet into consoles have extended their lives with updates and enhancements dramatically, and we've also seen hardware upgrades with the Xbox 360 Elite, slim, and Playstation advances (sorry, but I'm not well versed in the iterations of this console). I also haven't seen games truly push the limitations of the consoles, not like Halo 2 pushed the Xbox. Not to mention that manufacturers hemorrhage profit on consoles for several years due to the long development costs, this past generation especially. If a new generation isn't drastically needed, I don't believe it will show.

I think these clues point towards the next console generation being quite distant in the future, conservatively 3 years, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were still 5 years off.


I have to respectfully disagree. When you take into account only some of the following features you see the current generation of consoles is not up to the task anymore. Imagine if you combined all of the features?

1. Dedicated physics chips for calculations.

2. Sheer graphics improvements. Direct X11 and PC's are so far in front now it's not even funny.

3. Artificial Intelligence (AI) this truly eats up computations cycles and is the reason in the current generation we see such 'dumb AI' in almost every game. The simply have to restrict the programming techniques and resources in this vital area.

4. New features like hardware networking compression. This could lead to insane amounts of multiplayer or single universe data being pulled downstream or sent upstream as well.

5. Solid state drives to reduce or eradicate load times altogether.

6. Actual full HD 1080p support or even Blu-ray or ultra widescreen.

7. How about multi display support?


I could keep going on for ages but the reality is, yes, the current generation have been extended by things like Internet access/apps and Kinect/Move etc but with just this short list I'm already wanting a next generation console.

Personally I see a split like PS2 & PS3, the PS2 still sold in huge numbers for a very long time and during the PS3 initial-mid lifetime I might add. Sony did well for backwards compatibility there. We'll start to see this type of game engine cross generation support with new tiles and the current/next generation platforms too.

Pfft you can bring the current generation of consoles to their knees with just some real time shadow and lighting, let alone the vast array of solid state modeling, reflections and so forth. The current gen use a huge array of "cheap tricks" to make the game engines of today and recent years possible.

With new generation hardware and development tools we might actually enable developers to spend less time using cheap tricks, spend precious resources on actual gameplay or artwork etc and deliver improve games in every respect.

[Edited on 02.06.2012 5:33 PM PST]

  • 02.06.2012 5:27 PM PDT

Old school Bungie, born and raised,
In the Septagon is where I spend most of my days.
Relaxin', maxin', posting all cool,
Talking about Halo, life and some school.
Got in one little argument, and the mods got scared,
they said "You're gonna get banned and your member title'll be bare!"

Posted by: Oddley765

Posted by: prometheus25
I'm not sold on new consoles yet. The proliferation of the internet into consoles have extended their lives with updates and enhancements dramatically, and we've also seen hardware upgrades with the Xbox 360 Elite, slim, and Playstation advances (sorry, but I'm not well versed in the iterations of this console). I also haven't seen games truly push the limitations of the consoles, not like Halo 2 pushed the Xbox. Not to mention that manufacturers hemorrhage profit on consoles for several years due to the long development costs, this past generation especially. If a new generation isn't drastically needed, I don't believe it will show.

I think these clues point towards the next console generation being quite distant in the future, conservatively 3 years, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were still 5 years off.


I have to respectfully disagree. When you take into account only some of the following features you see the current generation of consoles is not up to the task anymore. Imagine if you combined all of the features?

1. Dedicated physics chips for calculations.

2. Sheer graphics improvements. Direct X11 and PC's are so far in front now it's not even funny.

3. Artificial Intelligence (AI) this truly eats up computations cycles and is the reason in the current generation we see such 'dumb AI' in almost every game. The simply have to restrict the programming techniques and resources in this vital area.

4. New features like hardware networking compression. This could lead to insane amounts of multiplayer or single universe data being pulled downstream or sent upstream as well.

5. Solid state drives to reduce or eradicate load times altogether.

6. Actual full HD 1080p support or even Blu-ray or ultra widescreen.

7. How about multi display support?


I could keep going on for ages but the reality is, yes, the current generation have been extended by things like Internet access/apps and Kinect/Move etc but with just this short list I'm already wanting a next generation console.

Personally I see a split like PS2 & PS3, the PS2 still sold in huge numbers for a very long time and during the PS3 initial-mid lifetime I might add. Sony did well for backwards compatibility there. We'll start to see this type of game engine cross generation support with new tiles and the current/next generation platforms too.

Pfft you can bring the current generation of consoles to their knees with just some real time shadow and lighting, let alone the vast array of solid state modeling, reflections and so forth. The current gen use a huge array of "cheap tricks" to make the game engines of today and recent years possible.

With new generation hardware and development tools we might actually enable developers to spend less time using cheap tricks, spend precious resources on actual gameplay or artwork etc and deliver improve games in every respect.


Yes, those are very recent cutting-edge developments in the industry, but incorporating those into a device would be expensive. Prohibitively so, in my opinion. The 3DO years ago was a marvel of a machine during the early-mid 90's, but it was $700, which was exorbitant! The company went bankrupt because no one wanted to shell out that much money.

You bring up valid points, but I don't feel the console market is ready to pay for such luxuries.

  • 02.06.2012 5:49 PM PDT
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  • Intrepid Mythic Member
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R.I.P. Halo 2
11/9/04 - 4/15/10

- B( )B

The next gen Xbox will not have a GPU like that in it. That GPU is already outdated. It wouldn't be able to do anything more than play our current games in 1080P. The 6670 is a $90 GPU.

The 360's GPU is comparable to an ATI X1900. In 2005 when the 360 released, that card would run you $600. There is no chance that the next gen Xbox will have a GPU that is less than cutting edge.

  • 02.06.2012 5:58 PM PDT


Posted by: prometheus25
Yes, those are very recent cutting-edge developments in the industry, but incorporating those into a device would be expensive. Prohibitively so, in my opinion. The 3DO years ago was a marvel of a machine during the early-mid 90's, but it was $700, which was exorbitant! The company went bankrupt because no one wanted to shell out that much money.

You bring up valid points, but I don't feel the console market is ready to pay for such luxuries.


Most of those are not that recent. I agree putting all of them in would be too expensive but it illustrates my rebuttal to your comment about too early for next gen. Personally I want the next gen ASAP, for any and all of those reasons above.

The fact remains companies like Microsoft and Sony lose money on their consoles for the initial-mid lifecycle, make money on the licensing and profit on accessories, online services and console sales in the late lifecycle.

Also 3DO went bust not because of the console price itself but because of crap games...period. If you don't have games that gamers want to play then you're done before you even start.

Look at Apple products where consumers pay a massive premium for what they want in a closed environment. Look at the Wii for another example where the platform went against popular opinion.

When you look at 60+ million units of PS3's and 60+ million units of xbox360's then put those figures and installed player base as well as xbox live subscriptions of over 60+ million your start to view the cost of the console differently.

Microsoft are far and away positioned the best for the next round of consoles. Now is the time to strike. Sony is hurting and only last year did xbox360 overtake PS3. Make things backward/forwards compatible and get this fast up-takers in the stream now.

Look at Bungie's new game, now add in the next Halo trilogy, now add in other spin-offs, exclusives, online apps, netflix, movies on demand, xbox live marketplace...

The time is perfect for later this year and personally I will be seriously surprised is the next console from Microsoft isn't before XMAS this year.

Now reflect this back to Bungie...why would they invest so many resources into what is going to be outdated in 1-3 years max. Personally I don't believe they are that shortsighted and their new game platform/engine is going to handle cross platform and cross generation.

  • 02.06.2012 6:37 PM PDT

In a time long past, the armies of the dark came again to the lands of men. Their leaders became known as the fallen lords, and their terrible sorcery was without equal in the west.
In 30 years they reduced the civilized nations into carrion and ash. Until the free city of Madrigal alone defined them. An army gathered there, and a desperate battle was joined against the fallen
Heros were born in the fire and bloodshed of the wars which followed and their names and deeds will never be forgotten

Nope, I think Destiny is really STALEMATE!

The only way to win is to obviously not to play

It was cancelled in 1996 for Marathon Durandal.

But I doubt it will be for a next gen console.

[Edited on 02.06.2012 6:53 PM PST]

  • 02.06.2012 6:42 PM PDT

Old school Bungie, born and raised,
In the Septagon is where I spend most of my days.
Relaxin', maxin', posting all cool,
Talking about Halo, life and some school.
Got in one little argument, and the mods got scared,
they said "You're gonna get banned and your member title'll be bare!"

Posted by: Oddley765

Most of those are not that recent. I agree putting all of them in would be too expensive but it illustrates my rebuttal to your comment about too early for next gen. Personally I want the next gen ASAP, for any and all of those reasons above.

The fact remains companies like Microsoft and Sony lose money on their consoles for the initial-mid lifecycle, make money on the licensing and profit on accessories, online services and console sales in the late lifecycle.

Also 3DO went bust not because of the console price itself but because of crap games...period. If you don't have games that gamers want to play then you're done before you even start.

Look at Apple products where consumers pay a massive premium for what they want in a closed environment. Look at the Wii for another example where the platform went against popular opinion.

When you look at 60+ million units of PS3's and 60+ million units of xbox360's then put those figures and installed player base as well as xbox live subscriptions of over 60+ million your start to view the cost of the console differently.

Microsoft are far and away positioned the best for the next round of consoles. Now is the time to strike. Sony is hurting and only last year did xbox360 overtake PS3. Make things backward/forwards compatible and get this fast up-takers in the stream now.

Look at Bungie's new game, now add in the next Halo trilogy, now add in other spin-offs, exclusives, online apps, netflix, movies on demand, xbox live marketplace...

The time is perfect for later this year and personally I will be seriously surprised is the next console from Microsoft isn't before XMAS this year.

Now reflect this back to Bungie...why would they invest so many resources into what is going to be outdated in 1-3 years max. Personally I don't believe they are that shortsighted and their new game platform/engine is going to handle cross platform and cross generation.


And the 3DO didn't have any games because developers did not see a future in an over priced console rather than the more reasonable and affordable N64/PS, which did contribute to its failure.

And to rebuttal, Microsoft is making profit on Xbox LIVE service, publishing of games and accessories now. It's not necessary to push a new generation of console to maintain profits on those.

It takes serious capital to develop a piece of hardware like a console, and with the Xbox 360 making a profit late in it's life, I can't imagine the Microsoft board members being eager to render it obsolete before it earns it's pay. To do otherwise would be terrible business strategy.

  • 02.06.2012 6:52 PM PDT


Posted by: prometheus25
It takes serious capital to develop a piece of hardware like a console, and with the Xbox 360 making a profit late in it's life, I can't imagine the Microsoft board members being eager to render it obsolete before it earns it's pay. To do otherwise would be terrible business strategy.


I can agree that the MS bean counters may hold off because of the extreme longevity and continued profitability in the current generation.

However viewed against Sony, Nintendo and potential Apple entering the gaming/console arena timing before the end of this year would better serve Microsoft over the next 5-10 years.

I'm betting this is half the reason Bungie are dark as well, the future is clouded and timing is blurry at best. Once the platforms consolidate I imagine Bungie will bring things to light shortly after.

  • 02.06.2012 6:57 PM PDT

In a time long past, the armies of the dark came again to the lands of men. Their leaders became known as the fallen lords, and their terrible sorcery was without equal in the west.
In 30 years they reduced the civilized nations into carrion and ash. Until the free city of Madrigal alone defined them. An army gathered there, and a desperate battle was joined against the fallen
Heros were born in the fire and bloodshed of the wars which followed and their names and deeds will never be forgotten


Posted by: Oddley765

Posted by: prometheus25
It takes serious capital to develop a piece of hardware like a console, and with the Xbox 360 making a profit late in it's life, I can't imagine the Microsoft board members being eager to render it obsolete before it earns it's pay. To do otherwise would be terrible business strategy.


I can agree that the MS bean counters may hold off because of the extreme longevity and continued profitability in the current generation.

However viewed against Sony, Nintendo and potential Apple entering the gaming/console arena timing before the end of this year would better serve Microsoft over the next 5-10 years.

I'm betting this is half the reason Bungie are dark as well, the future is clouded and timing is blurry at best. Once the platforms consolidate I imagine Bungie will bring things to light shortly after.


Microsoft is going to keep xbox 360 as long as possibly.

Personally, I think the future of xbox is going to be upgraded hardware and the same software/networking.

  • 02.06.2012 7:00 PM PDT

Oh and serious capital, like say $50 per year multiplied by 66+ million xbox live subscribers.

That's USD$3.3 Billion. Err I don't think xbox has much to worry about in terms of costs. Also that is only calculating 1 year of subscribers.

Imagine if the next console was around for only 5 years, that's an insane 16.5 Billion.

Really we're still concerned about the cost?

  • 02.06.2012 7:24 PM PDT
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Destinypedia - The Wiki for Bungie's Destiny
Posted by: DEATHPIMP72
Anyone but Foman. He smells like cheese.

The flagship title for XBox 720 is likely to be an XBox 720 exclusive, both for practical reasons (it will be the most advanced console on the market and a game that fully utilizes it will be unplayable on lesser consoles) and for marketing reasons (to drive sales of the XBox 720 -- why buy a new console to play the latest and greatest game if you can play it on your current console?).

Bungie's next title is all-but-confirmed to be a multi-platform title. Not only that, but with the XBox 720 likely not coming out until late 2013, you have some pretty powerful arguments against this theory.

  • 02.06.2012 7:29 PM PDT

Old school Bungie, born and raised,
In the Septagon is where I spend most of my days.
Relaxin', maxin', posting all cool,
Talking about Halo, life and some school.
Got in one little argument, and the mods got scared,
they said "You're gonna get banned and your member title'll be bare!"

Posted by: Oddley765
Oh and serious capital, like say $50 per year multiplied by 66+ million xbox live subscribers.

That's USD$3.3 Billion. Err I don't think xbox has much to worry about in terms of costs. Also that is only calculating 1 year of subscribers.

Imagine if the next console was around for only 5 years, that's an insane 16.5 Billion.

Really we're still concerned about the cost?


That's revenue, not profit. Calculate in utilities, taxes, employee salary, R&D and advertising, then come to me with that argument.

  • 02.06.2012 7:36 PM PDT


Posted by: x Foman123 x
The flagship title for XBox 720 is likely to be an XBox 720 exclusive, both for practical reasons (it will be the most advanced console on the market and a game that fully utilizes it will be unplayable on lesser consoles) and for marketing reasons (to drive sales of the XBox 720 -- why buy a new console to play the latest and greatest game if you can play it on your current console?).

Bungie's next title is all-but-confirmed to be a multi-platform title. Not only that, but with the XBox 720 likely not coming out until late 2013, you have some pretty powerful arguments against this theory.


I completely agree the flagship title will be an exclusive, mostly likely Halo 4 or 5. Just because it's confirmed for 360 doesn't mean it's not for next generation as well.

As far as incentive things like single universe vs. standard multiplayer, increased graphics, better connections, AI advancements, additional maps or content for the next generation etc.

I believe the next generation has to be a cross over and backwards compatible, the installed user base is too vast now and they can't turn their back on recent hardware purchases of 360's or kinect etc.

Hence my argument things are coming sooner rather than later a new cross generation industry is emerging. We saw this with PS2 & PS3, the PS2 sold so well they had to include backwards compatibility. It's something xbox has always struggled with and now the industry faces as a whole.

The console will be teased with exclusives but that does not exclude sales from gamers wanting the best games exclusive and non-exclusive. Further the existing base already have XBL subscriptions too now don't they.

  • 02.06.2012 8:32 PM PDT


Posted by: prometheus25
That's revenue, not profit. Calculate in utilities, taxes, employee salary, R&D and advertising, then come to me with that argument.


Now you're just going at semantics. Seriously stop and think about how much revenue they bring in from -

1. Consoles when they are profitable.
2. Xbox live subscriptions.
3. Accessories and online purchases.
4. Game licensing.
5. Advertising which will be on the increase with the more online integration and apps coming into consoles.
6. Royalties.
7. Movies & TV etc.

The cost of peer to peer xbox live even combined with offices, taxes, staff, marketing, office equipment, electricity, transport, R&D, shipping, coffee, snacks and the while enchilada absolutely and categorically does not even compare.

I mean no disrespect but you have to be crazy to think in just xbox live subscriptions there isn't more than enough money to develop a next generation console and loss lead to market leading position.

There is even enough money in there to develop worldwide server farms for server based xbox live services and developer licensing of such a framework.

You are also forgetting how much comes goes between the PC side of the business with DirectX and other technologies. Even the xbox dashboard is basically the next Windows and Windows mobile.

Seriously you have to look at this and shake your head at how much money xbox/microsoft have made. I know Sony are sitting there ruing their choice to give PSN for free.

[Edited on 02.06.2012 8:41 PM PST]

  • 02.06.2012 8:37 PM PDT