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This topic has moved here: Subject: Thriller is an impossible medal. Mathematically Explained.
  • Subject: Thriller is an impossible medal. Mathematically Explained.
Subject: Thriller is an impossible medal. Mathematically Explained.

Here I will do a calculation showing the probability of a player getting a Thriller medal (15 kills in a row as the Zombie without dying) in a custom game with 1 zombie and 15 humans. For simplicity we will assume that all players are of equal skill. There is no time limit on this game.

We will estimate that in a given encounter, the probability of a zombie killing a human is 0.28 (and hence the probability of a human killing a zombie is 1-0.28=0.72). We need a spree of 15. We know for a fact that the zombie will have a minimum spree of 1, so we don't need to worry about the first kill. However, in order to attain Thriller it is necessary that the next 14 encounters are won by the zombie. The probability of that is 0.28^14=1.8205912 × 10^-8. Next, we must calculate the probability that the first zombie got all of those kills. It's certain that he got the first kill. The probability he got the second kill is 1/2, since there are 2 zombies. The probability that he got the 3rd kill is 1/3, since there are 3 zombies. And so on. This calculation translates to one divided by fifteen factorial, or 1/(15!) because it will end with 15 players as zombies trying to get the last kill.

Since there are 16 players, your chance of being a zombie in the first place is 1/16 so we must multiply by this number. Therefore our final calculation is the following:

1.8205912*10^(-8)/15!/16=8.7*10^-22.
That's 0.00000000000000000000087, or 0.000000000000000000087% chance of occuring.

tldr: You should expect to get a thriller medal once every 1,149,400,000,000,000,000,000 games.

[Edited on 02.24.2012 9:58 PM PST]

  • 02.24.2012 9:45 PM PDT
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actually it's impossible.

Chance of zombie is 3/12 btw.

And there are only 9 humans.

So you fail hard

[Edited on 02.24.2012 9:49 PM PST]

  • 02.24.2012 9:47 PM PDT

I think people already tried to get it in custom games and it doesn't work. I could be wrong though.

  • 02.24.2012 9:49 PM PDT

Right. But I was talking about a 16 player game, not in MM.

  • 02.24.2012 9:49 PM PDT


Posted by: ankerd123
actually it's impossible.

Chance of zombie is 3/12 btw.

And there are only 9 humans.

So you fail hard

  • 02.24.2012 9:50 PM PDT


Posted by: Ghosty Gh0st

Posted by: ankerd123
actually it's impossible.

Chance of zombie is 3/12 btw.

And there are only 9 humans.

So you fail hard

I never said anything about MM, as I explained I was talking about a 16 player game.

  • 02.24.2012 9:51 PM PDT

A player that doesn't need to cheat to rise his rank or medals
I earn them
_________________________
Halo is the most awesome game i've ever played. It has a great story, an impressive gameplay and It plays well with others, this is the most important point. A game is usually created to make people have fun. And Halo gave me many and many hours of pure enjoiment.
Thanks Bungie for made a such wonderful game.

halo is a matter of skill not probability... btw i must admit it's still impossible

  • 02.24.2012 9:52 PM PDT
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Bringing in Fikst. Bringing back lmao.
Inheritor # 475 world,

#6 In the Country.

Halocharts.com


Posted by: KaRiK

Posted by: Ghosty Gh0st

Posted by: ankerd123
actually it's impossible.

Chance of zombie is 3/12 btw.

And there are only 9 humans.

So you fail hard

I never said anything about MM, as I explained I was talking about a 16 player game.


No one cares about custom games if you want the medal just boost it.

  • 02.24.2012 10:00 PM PDT

Tons of people care about custom games. MM has a pretty poor selection of gametypes. Not sure why you'd prefer to play crappy MM games instead of custom games with people you know.

  • 02.24.2012 10:02 PM PDT

No one plays custom games anymore.

  • 02.24.2012 10:35 PM PDT

Posted by: NinjaLord77
No one plays custom games anymore.

How would you know? Do you have access to statistics about custom games?

  • 02.24.2012 10:38 PM PDT

More people play custom games with friends than MM alone.

  • 02.24.2012 10:41 PM PDT

Posted by: NinjaLord77
No one plays custom games anymore.
ALL ABOUT THAT cR!!

  • 02.24.2012 10:50 PM PDT
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Posted by: Volomist
halo is a matter of skill not probability... btw i must admit it's still impossible
implying that probability and mathmatics arent something involved with game involving skills

  • 02.24.2012 10:54 PM PDT

I am god.

I've seen it happen on Cops n' Robbers

  • 02.25.2012 4:58 AM PDT


Posted by: ankerd123
actually it's impossible.

Chance of zombie is 3/12 btw.

And there are only 9 humans.

So you fail hard

  • 02.25.2012 4:59 AM PDT

Posted by: ankerd123
Posted by: KaRiK
Posted by: Ghosty Gh0st
Posted by: ankerd123
actually it's impossible.

Chance of zombie is 3/12 btw.

And there are only 9 humans.

So you fail hard

I never said anything about MM, as I explained I was talking about a 16 player game.


No one cares about custom games if you want the medal just boost it.

Is the OP stating that they want the medal? No, they're not. You fail so hard for not reading the OP properly then trying to cover up with stupid excuses.

To the OP, I don't even get why this medal was created.

  • 02.25.2012 5:51 AM PDT

What if everybody is AFK and your the zombie?



Your augment invalid

  • 02.25.2012 5:54 AM PDT

You know our motto, We deliver!

Guys, he didn't about playing on MM, but in customs. This made me laugh quite a bit. Thanks for the read. But I guess in reality you just have to hope that the people on the human team are not very good, or you have a major host advantage, or you just get very lucky and the other team are messing around.

But no, I wouldn't exactly try and get this. To be honest though, I don't care much for medals in Reach. I did in Halo 3, but not so much Reach.

  • 02.25.2012 6:22 AM PDT
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H: CE - Amazing.
Halo 2 - Revolutionary.
Halo 3 - Decent.
Halo Reach- An epic fail of monumental proportions.
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░█▀▀ ░█▀▀ ░█ ░█ ░░░░█▀▀ ░█▀█ ░█ ░█ ░░░
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LOL OP
1. you haven't a clue how statistics work
2. common sense is gone

fail somewhere else
thnx

  • 02.25.2012 6:27 AM PDT

Check out my file share! It will be updated occasionally with my new best maps.


Posted by: NinjaLord77
I don't play custom games anymore.


Fixed.

Custom 'splosions > MM Games

  • 02.25.2012 8:15 AM PDT

☆☆☆Does anyone even read this?☆☆☆

||DeviantArt || File Share||

Posted by: snip3r dud33
Honestly, this is a good cover up for all the idiots who won't know its a cover up .

We need Fat Kid or something like that added.

  • 02.25.2012 8:25 AM PDT

Ideas are more powerful than guns. We would not let our enemies have guns, why should we let them have ideas. - Joseph Stalin

Sure, this IS impossible in MM due to not enough players, but you could boost for it in custom games.

  • 02.25.2012 8:49 AM PDT
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RIP Bungie Service Records. You shall be missed.

Impossible in MM, yes.

Possible in Customs. Boosting or get it during that 0.00000000000000087% or whatever.

  • 02.25.2012 9:02 AM PDT

Did bungie add this medal as a joke? Infection sprees are hard enough...entertaining post, OP.

  • 02.25.2012 12:10 PM PDT