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Subject: Can any old-timers predict the patterns of Destiny forum activity?

Per Audacia Ad Astra

With age comes pattern recognition. At least it does with me.

However I have only been on the forums during Halo 3 and Halo: Reach's release. I didn't bother to notice the fluctuations in forum activity until now.

So what can the ancients tell me about the forum activity once Destiny is near, and when it arrives? I understand that a considerable amount depends on the success of Destiny.
But from Halo: CE, Halo 2, Halo 3, Halo 3: ODST and Halo: Reach have you noticed any 'maximum forum activity' intervals and the duration of their forum activity until it inevitably dies down?

  • 10.07.2012 8:46 AM PDT

~ Life is Killing Me. ~

~ I hate, therefore I am. ~

Prediction like that only happen when enough beer is involved...

  • 10.07.2012 8:52 AM PDT

@spawn031

"So much of what we do is ephemeral and quickly forgotten, even by ourselves, so it's gratifying to have something you have done linger in people's memories." John Williams

Franchise game development chart:

1: Game Developer releases teaser trailer
2: Fans start posting on forums and have high expectations
3: Game developer releases content about possible features
4: Fans complain/bash/hate at how it will ruin the game
5. Repeat steps 3-4 until 2 months before release.
6. Developer releases actual gameplay footage - fans see it and like it
7. Game is released and everyone is happy

Since we're in a new IP, we have noting to compare it with. Bungie's new project is their own thing, we can provide feedback, but it's brand new. As for forums themselves, activity rises the closer we get to release or they next big appearance and demo of them game. IE - E3, PAX, Comic-Con, GDC, Spike Awards, etc.

  • 10.07.2012 8:55 AM PDT
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  • Fabled Legendary Member

ODST Expeditionary Force I The WorkPLace I Mythics
Technically Mythic
Posted by: Cobravert
I just saw a green monkey nut shot a small tan lizard(?) in a gunny sack.


Posted by: spawn031
Franchise game development chart:

1: Game Developer releases teaser trailer
2: Fans start posting on forums and have high expectations
3: Game developer releases content about possible features
4: Fans complain/bash/hate at how it will ruin the game
5. Repeat steps 3-4 until 2 months before release.
6. Developer releases actual gameplay footage - fans see it and like it
7. Game is released and everyone is happy

Since we're in a new IP, we have noting to compare it with. Bungie's new project is their own thing, we can provide feedback, but it's brand new. As for forums themselves, activity rises the closer we get to release or they next big appearance and demo of them game. IE - E3, PAX, Comic-Con, GDC, Spike Awards, etc.


I think your step 4 is wrong, if it's a new IP and we have nothing to compare it to, we can't really say whether or not it'll ruin the game.

[Edited on 10.07.2012 9:08 AM PDT]

  • 10.07.2012 9:08 AM PDT

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Typically, the forum pattern is just like:
1. Announce Trailer
2. Forum Creation
3. Bajillion posts within a day
4. Everyone speculates till the next trailer comese out.

As for marketing, this one will be different. It will be hard to predict for a few reasons:

A.) Since Microsoft is no longer in control of how things will go down, it really can go anyway possible. Microsoft controlled nearly all of the marketing for the Halo games, so it was always up for Microsoft to decide, with little input from Microsoft.

B.) Bungie has a lot more control over their own game now and how things get published. I've seen Bungie looking for positions in the company for marketing and publishing, so it looks as if Bungie has some more say in what goes down for how the game gets published. Also with a new publishing company, things might change a bit, which brings me to my next point.

C.) New publishing company. In some way, Activision probably has some say in how the thing gets marketed. That is part of their job for being a publisher.

D.) With all of the above, this is the first time Bungie is going through something like this, even before Halo. This is the first time in 11 years, Bungie has control of how things get marketed, and plan things out. Bungie is new to this whole "Oh, so we can actually plan how the games gets released?" situation. So who knows how it will go down? It really can go anyway they want.

My prediction is that they just do a typical release for a game. Maybe it will, maybe it wont. The only people that know are the people who can't say anything.

[Edited on 10.07.2012 9:14 AM PDT]

  • 10.07.2012 9:09 AM PDT

Posted by: chubbz
I think your step 4 is wrong, if it's a new IP and we have nothing to compare it to, we can't really say whether or not it'll ruin the game.
We know it's a shooter of some kind though, and comparison to other shooters on the market will inevitably be drawn.

  • 10.07.2012 9:12 AM PDT

@spawn031

"So much of what we do is ephemeral and quickly forgotten, even by ourselves, so it's gratifying to have something you have done linger in people's memories." John Williams

New IP's may work slightly different. I've used this mainly for entire game franchises and sequels. Halo 2/3/ODST/Reach/4 all went through this and it's not entirely different from other franchises - Starcraft, Gears, COD, Battlefield, EA sports, etc. There also may be an optional step between 5/6 of the developer releasing a playable beta - but of course there is usually a feedback forum.
Posted by: chubbz
I think your step 4 is wrong, if it's a new IP and we have nothing to compare it to, we can't really say whether or not it'll ruin the game.

  • 10.07.2012 9:13 AM PDT
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  • Exalted Legendary Member

Exalted Unexplainable Member

If you don't mind, spawn031, I just wanted to add a little more to your well crafted list:

0: Random speculation and ideas for game.
1: Game Developer releases teaser trailer.
2: Fans start posting on forums and have high expectations.
3: Game developer releases content about possible features.
4: Fans complain/bash/hate at how it will ruin the game.
5. Repeat steps 3-4 until 2 months before release.
6. Developer releases actual gameplay footage - fans see it and like it.
7. Game is released and everyone is happy.
8. Good topics about easter eggs, the story, glitches, game nights, &c.
9. Boasting, and lame threads begin.
10. Complaining...
11. Trolling leads to heavier moderation.
12. Population of forum slowly decreases.
13. Burritosenior gets banned.
14. Little activity...
15. Forum gets achieved/deleted.

[Edited on 10.07.2012 9:49 AM PDT]

  • 10.07.2012 9:40 AM PDT

I'm a stubborn guy. I love to argue my opinion, but unlike others, I'll try to see your side of the problem. I'm a triathlete, with a very heavy empephis on the swimming bit. Also, don't hate on the ~Quinton~ at the end of my posts. Why are you still reading this? #creeper #hashtagcashmoney for hashtaging on Bungie.net

I'm expecting a huge increase in posts per day when the first trailer or ViDoc hits. After that it will taper down again. As others have said: it all depends on the timing of media and what not.

  • 10.07.2012 9:41 AM PDT
  • gamertag: [none]
  • user homepage:

Well, here we are. I guess that it was destined to come to this.

Posted by: Bungie Sam
So what can the ancients tell me about the forum activity once Destiny is near, and when it arrives?

The wheels on the bus go round and round.

  • 10.07.2012 9:43 AM PDT
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  • Fabled Legendary Member

ODST Expeditionary Force I The WorkPLace I Mythics
Technically Mythic
Posted by: Cobravert
I just saw a green monkey nut shot a small tan lizard(?) in a gunny sack.


Posted by: spawn031
New IP's may work slightly different. I've used this mainly for entire game franchises and sequels. Halo 2/3/ODST/Reach/4 all went through this and it's not entirely different from other franchises - Starcraft, Gears, COD, Battlefield, EA sports, etc. There also may be an optional step between 5/6 of the developer releasing a playable beta - but of course there is usually a feedback forum.
Posted by: chubbz
I think your step 4 is wrong, if it's a new IP and we have nothing to compare it to, we can't really say whether or not it'll ruin the game.


I think that as more features get announced they'll be met with optimism, until the game is released and we all have a chance to see how it really works. If it works poorly and some form of it returns for subsequent games then I think your original timeline would work, since it's now a franchise.

  • 10.07.2012 9:48 AM PDT

Posted by: Primum Agmen
A tosser is the same as a wanker. To toss oneself off is to fondle the trouser weasel.


Current Gamertag:
JesusWasAHindu


Posted by: Uriel S167
Prediction like that only happen when enough beer is involved...

  • 10.07.2012 10:24 AM PDT

Posted by: Recon Number 54
Use your head. The one on your shoulders. No really, just try. Please?

˙sɹǝʇndɯoɔ ɥʇıʍ pooƃ os ʇou ɯ,ı 'ǝɹǝɥ ʇǝƃ sıɥʇ pıp ʍoɥ 'lol

It will just be a huge cesspool of fanboys posting things like "adapt" or "you suck." Everyone who disagrees with the game is labeled a "troll." Then tighter moderation/patches/competing games launching will lower the population of the forum until it dies off, or gets rolled in with lore/singleplayer forums (if also provided). The multiplayer forum will always be, and has always been the worst.

  • 10.07.2012 10:32 AM PDT

GOAT

Stage 1: speculation and hype phase
Stage 2: Bungie reveals information, people compare it to Halo
Stage 3: Destiny gets its own forum
Stage 4: steps and 2 keep repeating
Stage 5: game is released, people then judge it

We'll get a lot of new members, and a lot more activity.

  • 10.07.2012 10:45 AM PDT
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  • Fabled Legendary Member

I understand nothing because my life is a conspiracy.

It's a new project, so I'm expecting awe and excitement.

  • 10.07.2012 10:51 AM PDT

"No, Hoobla. No."
~DeeJ


Posted by: spawn031
Franchise game development chart:

1: Game Developer releases teaser trailer
2: Fans start posting on forums and have high expectations
3: Game developer releases content about possible features
4: Fans complain/bash/hate at how it will ruin the game
5. Repeat steps 3-4 until 2 months before release.
6. Developer releases actual gameplay footage - fans see it and like it
7. Game is released and everyone is happy

Pretty much this. Hahaha

  • 10.07.2012 11:01 AM PDT

Didact's Reprisal -
Now is the time of our unworlding
One final effort is all that remains
And I am not afraid
We shall fulfill our promise
We fight for the grace of the Mantle
And this time none of you will be left behind

Wasn't here for CE. All I know is that for the sequels folks will inevitably scream "[current] game is terrible, [preious game] was awesome!" for each new game released.

The 7 steps by spawn are also pretty accurate, though I think #7 should be a mixed answer.

  • 10.07.2012 11:29 AM PDT

You got stuck by FalconStickr


Posted by: lime013
It's a new project, so I'm expecting awe and excitement.

With Bungies track record I think we will get what we want.

  • 10.07.2012 12:16 PM PDT

If you don't mind, Izak609, I just wanted to add a little more to your well crafted list:
Posted by: Izak609
If you don't mind, spawn031, I just wanted to add a little more to your well crafted list:

0: Random speculation and ideas for game.
1: Game Developer releases teaser trailer.
2: Fans start posting on forums and have high expectations.
3: Game developer releases content about possible features.
4: Fans complain/bash/hate at how it will ruin the game.
5. Repeat steps 3-4 until 2 months before release.
6. Developer releases actual gameplay footage - fans see it and like it.
7. Game is released and everyone is happy.
8. Good topics about easter eggs, the story, glitches, game nights, &c.
9. Boasting, and lame threads begin.
10. Complaining...
11. Trolling leads to heavier moderation.
12. Population of forum slowly decreases.
13a. Burritosenior gets banned.
13b. Burritosenior gets banned.
13c. Burritosenior gets banned.
14. Little activity...
15. Forum gets achieved/deleted.


OT: I have not really been here long enough to know, but it sure will be interesting.

[Edited on 10.07.2012 12:19 PM PDT]

  • 10.07.2012 12:18 PM PDT

It will be blowing up with activity, just like the Halo 3 Forum, ODST Forum and the Reach Forum that I remember when they were the "hot topics" of this site.

  • 10.07.2012 4:24 PM PDT

The stars predict activity levels will rise, apart from that, it's hard to tell. It's a new IP, so it's not like we can really compare.


Seriously, if all goes to plan there will be one word to describe the forum... 'Hype'!

  • 10.07.2012 4:32 PM PDT

Dubito ergo cogito, cogito ergo sum ©
Halo 3 Longshore playable on Team Fortress 2 vids

What happen if I told you that the word "Destiny" is not going to be the name of Bungie's next game?

*Please don't stare at me Achronos!*

  • 10.07.2012 4:34 PM PDT

In memory of those fallen in the defense of Earth and her colonies.

March 3, 2553


Posted by: spawn031
Franchise game development chart:

1: Game Developer releases teaser trailer
2: Fans start posting on forums and have high expectations
3: Game developer releases content about possible features
4: Fans complain/bash/hate at how it will ruin the game
5. Repeat steps 3-4 until 2 months before release.
6. Developer releases actual gameplay footage - fans see it and like it
7. Game is released and everyone is happy

Since we're in a new IP, we have noting to compare it with. Bungie's new project is their own thing, we can provide feedback, but it's brand new. As for forums themselves, activity rises the closer we get to release or they next big appearance and demo of them game. IE - E3, PAX, Comic-Con, GDC, Spike Awards, etc.

  • 10.07.2012 4:51 PM PDT

Tin shacks and catfish bones.

Well, this new game won't be exclusive to Xbox 360 so I'm expecting to see this place explode with activity.

*puts on helmet*

I'm ready.

  • 10.07.2012 9:31 PM PDT

It is the soldier, not the reporter, who has given us freedom of the press. It is the soldier, not the poet, who has given us freedom of speech. It is the soldier, not the campus organizer, who has given us the freedom to demonstrate. It is the soldier, not the lawyer, who has given us the right to a fair trial. And it is the soldier who salutes the flag, who serves the flag, whose coffin is draped in the flag that allows the protester to burn the flag.Father Dennis Edward O'Brien, USMC


Posted by: I ColdEmbrace I
Well, this new game won't be exclusive to Xbox 360 so I'm expecting to see this place explode with activity.

*puts on helmet*

I'm ready.


Possibly. I sometimes think this place wont get to many new members until well after the new game is released.

[Edited on 10.07.2012 9:37 PM PDT]

  • 10.07.2012 9:37 PM PDT

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