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Subject: Do you think mankind will reach Mars by the end of this century?

SB-117


Posted by: lVl e r c u r y
The century? Of course. Look at the progress we've made in the last 88 years. Now try and imagine where we'll be 88 years from now. Yeah...
Progress doesn't necessarily work that way. Some things explode beyond all expectation. Other things fizzle away.

For example, Neil Armstrong has lived the remainder of his life and died since his first footstep on the moon. In that entire time, we still haven't had a human being travel beyond the moon.

America didn't go to the moon because it's a natural extension of human progress and our innate desire to explore. Humans certainly have such desires, but governments don't. They went to the moon as part of a great big -blam!-waving contest vs. the russians.

That contest is over, and the pressure no longer exists. There needs to be a significant short-term reason to put a human on Mars, otherwise it probably won't happen for a long time. Hopefully it will, without the need for such a dangerous catalyst.

  • 11.28.2012 8:25 AM PDT
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Well, here we are. I guess that it was destined to come to this.

Actual human boots on Martian soil before 2099?

We could, but I suspect we won't.

Luna was reached due to an immensely focused effort that was based on both fear and pride which was capable of keeping those who were "on the fence" of whether or not it was worthwhile (I believe that it was, but understand that there are plenty who say that it is/was not) on the "let's do this" side of the fence.

But based on how quickly the general public became "bored" and unimpressed with any mission past Apollo 11 that didn't involve "watching a disaster unfold" was not "interesting enough to watch", I don't think that the general public can be motivated or remain in-tuned with such an endeavor as it is not entertaining enough.

Now, just like in 2001: A Space Odyssey, if there IS something that can get the attention of the mostly disinterested masses? It's the idea that "there are aliens out there". But they have to be "aliens" within a specific definition that is a Goldilocks and the Three Bears of keeping the public interested. Not too hot, not too cold, not too microbial, not too big, not too smart, not too stupid, and something that we can look at and feel better about ourselves if you please, just like when we're watching Springer.

Other than such a precisely "interesting, yet not too boring, and not too threatening" possibility of ET life, I can't see people accepting any $ spent or effort made that doesn't directly and immediately benefit them personally.

  • 11.28.2012 8:34 AM PDT

My theme
Battlelog
Halo Stats
My moment of fame =D Beat DeeJ (In Rocket Race) and won a T-Shirt. =D x2

My youtube channel

SpaceX founder wants to build a colony on mars

$500,000 ticket.

80,000 colonists.

Yup.

  • 11.28.2012 8:37 AM PDT

My theme
Battlelog
Halo Stats
My moment of fame =D Beat DeeJ (In Rocket Race) and won a T-Shirt. =D x2

My youtube channel

BTW ^ Timestamp is November 27th, 2012.

So decently "new."

Read it in my campus newspaper, find it funny how the article online was word for word of the campus paper.

Meh.

  • 11.28.2012 8:39 AM PDT
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  • Exalted Legendary Member

The who wishes, fervently wishes

The Russians could have done it in the -blam!- seventies, they had the whole goddamn program set up, but then canceled it due to party problems as the Communist era was falling apart.

-blam!- you Russians. We almost had it.

  • 11.28.2012 8:44 AM PDT
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Well, here we are. I guess that it was destined to come to this.

I really like the idea of the station parked in the "past Lunar orbit Lagrange" point.

It would (at least to me) show that we're not treating Mars as a "sprint, plant the flag and then never return" sort of mission.

To me, it is like an island in the Caribbean building a port because they know it will then support cruise ship traffic. A solid investment and gesture towards the future.

  • 11.28.2012 8:46 AM PDT

Driven by success.
Follow me if you wish:@JamilDeanTriaa

I would think so: Just look at the progress we have made in the past 100 years.

  • 11.28.2012 8:47 AM PDT

I'm a stubborn guy. I love to argue my opinion, but unlike others, I'll try to see your side of the problem. I'm a triathlete, with a very heavy empephis on the swimming bit. Also, don't hate on the ~Quinton~ at the end of my posts. Why are you still reading this? #creeper #hashtagcashmoney for hashtaging on Bungie.net


Posted by: Assaultor
No one would have believed in the early years of the 21st century that our world was being watched by intelligences greater than our own; that as men busied themselves about their various concerns, *they* observed and studied, the way a man with a microscope might scrutinize the creatures that swarm and multiply in a drop of water. With infinite complacency, men went to and fro about the globe, confident of our empire over this world. Yet across the gulf of space, intellects vast and cool and unsympathetic regarded our planet with envious eyes and slowly, and surely, drew their plans against us.


I feel like I know where this is from, and I believe I have read the book....

I sure hope that we get a man on Mars, too many shenanigans are going down on our rock.

  • 11.28.2012 8:49 AM PDT

Studies show that men think about sex every 7 seconds. I do my best to eat hotdogs in under 6, just so things don't get weird.

Please allow me to introduce Myself
I'm a man of wealth and taste
I've been around for a long, long year
Stole many a man's soul and faith


Posted by: Xannder
SpaceX founder wants to build a colony on mars

$500,000 ticket.

80,000 colonists.

Yup.
Why does this remind me of Bioshock's Rapture?

  • 11.28.2012 8:55 AM PDT
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The who wishes, fervently wishes


Posted by: MyNameIsCharlie

Posted by: Xannder
SpaceX founder wants to build a colony on mars

$500,000 ticket.

80,000 colonists.

Yup.
Why does this remind me of Bioshock's Rapture?


Because there's no way this could go wrong!(tm)

  • 11.28.2012 9:00 AM PDT
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Well, here we are. I guess that it was destined to come to this.


Posted by: LC o MagiikZ
I would think so: Just look at the progress we have made in the past 100 years.

And look at the progress not made in other eras.

People who stop participating and driving "progress" forward and expect "those people who make/do stuff to make and do new stuff" are the reasons that progress is not a steady or predictable thing. It is why a culture can rise, innovate and then take a breath, stagnate and fall into history, it is why they can and why so many have.

  • 11.28.2012 9:02 AM PDT
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The who wishes, fervently wishes


Posted by: Recon Number 54

Posted by: LC o MagiikZ
I would think so: Just look at the progress we have made in the past 100 years.

And look at the progress not made in other eras.

People who stop participating and driving "progress" forward and expect "those people who make/do stuff to make and do new stuff" are the reasons that progress is not a steady or predictable thing. It is why a culture can rise, innovate and then take a breath, stagnate and fall into history, it is why they can and why so many have.


Except now we have a thing called corporations barreling forward. Microchips don't keep advancing because people want to innovate, IBM just wants money. If we want to go to space, all you have to do is pitch your idea of colonization so it sounds quite profitable. All previous eras were driven by the individual, but today the well-oiled machine of humanity has been commandeered by the masses, and acts as such.

[Edited on 11.28.2012 9:09 AM PST]

  • 11.28.2012 9:08 AM PDT

"Wake me...when you need me."

Absolutely.

  • 11.28.2012 9:09 AM PDT

RIP Logan ~B.B.


Posted by: Wyzilla

Posted by: Recon Number 54

Posted by: LC o MagiikZ
I would think so: Just look at the progress we have made in the past 100 years.

And look at the progress not made in other eras.

People who stop participating and driving "progress" forward and expect "those people who make/do stuff to make and do new stuff" are the reasons that progress is not a steady or predictable thing. It is why a culture can rise, innovate and then take a breath, stagnate and fall into history, it is why they can and why so many have.


Except now we have a thing called corporations barreling forward. Microchips don't keep advancing because people want to innovate, IBM just wants money. If we want to go to space, all you have to do is pitch your idea of colonization so it sounds quite profitable. All previous eras were driven by the individual, but today the well-oiled machine of humanity has been commandeered by the masses, and acts as such.


Relying on privatization to get the job done will be the reason we don't make it to Mars this century. There isn't profit in it. The price tag is huge, the risks are astronomical. The only reason any "private" space industry exists is because NASA spent 40 years doing all the costly R&D and trial and error to make low-Earth travel feasible. And even after NASA did all the up-front work for them, they still only exist because NASA continues to pay their bills and even sends design teams to aid them.

[Edited on 11.28.2012 9:17 AM PST]

  • 11.28.2012 9:16 AM PDT
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Well, here we are. I guess that it was destined to come to this.

Profit can drive people into new markets, have them exploring for new resources, but just pure exploration, just "going there in order to get there, because you're pretty sure what will be there when you arrive"? That's not something that corporations tend to do willingly or eagerly.

Space is huge. I know, everyone says that, I wish that I could have trademarked the phrase. But it is so utterly huge and so mostly empty that other than resources, "up and out" only holds the interests of business if there is something better, cheaper, easier or more plentiful "up and out" as opposed to "down and around". Risk/reward, profit/loss are the pressures that the market places on its inhabitants in order for them to evolve and survive or die.

It was the individual, usually the ones considered half-mad by all reasonable people, who were willing and who did go where there be dragons. Personal greed makes people gamble, the risk/reward calculations for individuals are much more fluid than they are for corporations. And so, real risk, real exploration is going to depend on emotions. Pride, fear, and yes, even some greed. But people don't get off of the couch and shareholders do not elect boardmembers unless there is something motivating them to do so.

I don't see the thick part of the population bell curve buying into space exploration unless they have a serious and significant emotional reason to do so. It's sad, especially for me, because I don't see myself on the thick part of the curve when it comes to this matter. I am one of those wackjobs who believes that the sooner we get human feet stuck and staying anywhere else other than this rock, the sooner we no longer have all of our evolutionary eggs in one basket.

  • 11.28.2012 9:37 AM PDT

Posted by: IrIsHmAn04
no its legit, i used coordinates, set weapon timers the works.

We would need a purpose to be there other than just studying rocks. It's the same mentality for traveling to another world outside our solar system. Where do we go? We just just simply cannot make a ship and pick a random point and go. Plus we don't have the tech right now. Some of you brain childs need to get on that artificial gravity and better power sources.

  • 11.28.2012 9:43 AM PDT


Posted by: Xannder
SpaceX founder wants to build a colony on mars

$500,000 ticket.

80,000 colonists.

Yup.


Wow, that's awfully optimistic, but I guess that's what the world needs to be able to push its way to mars.

  • 11.28.2012 11:17 AM PDT

No.

  • 11.28.2012 11:20 AM PDT


Posted by: Recon Number 54
Profit can drive people into new markets, have them exploring for new resources, but just pure exploration, just "going there in order to get there, because you're pretty sure what will be there when you arrive"? That's not something that corporations tend to do willingly or eagerly.

Space is huge. I know, everyone says that, I wish that I could have trademarked the phrase. But it is so utterly huge and so mostly empty that other than resources, "up and out" only holds the interests of business if there is something better, cheaper, easier or more plentiful "up and out" as opposed to "down and around". Risk/reward, profit/loss are the pressures that the market places on its inhabitants in order for them to evolve and survive or die.

It was the individual, usually the ones considered half-mad by all reasonable people, who were willing and who did go where there be dragons. Personal greed makes people gamble, the risk/reward calculations for individuals are much more fluid than they are for corporations. And so, real risk, real exploration is going to depend on emotions. Pride, fear, and yes, even some greed. But people don't get off of the couch and shareholders do not elect boardmembers unless there is something motivating them to do so.

I don't see the thick part of the population bell curve buying into space exploration unless they have a serious and significant emotional reason to do so. It's sad, especially for me, because I don't see myself on the thick part of the curve when it comes to this matter. I am one of those wackjobs who believes that the sooner we get human feet stuck and staying anywhere else other than this rock, the sooner we no longer have all of our evolutionary eggs in one basket.


well said recon, its a shame that as a species we have lost the age old tendency to go out and explore, to see what's on the other side of the valley, just for the purpose of discovery and the new horizons it can bring to us.

  • 11.28.2012 11:22 AM PDT

It is the soldier, not the reporter, who has given us freedom of the press. It is the soldier, not the poet, who has given us freedom of speech. It is the soldier, not the campus organizer, who has given us the freedom to demonstrate. It is the soldier, not the lawyer, who has given us the right to a fair trial. And it is the soldier who salutes the flag, who serves the flag, whose coffin is draped in the flag that allows the protester to burn the flag.Father Dennis Edward O'Brien, USMC

If it was profitable we would.

  • 11.28.2012 11:25 AM PDT

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