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The Champion of Cyrodill would not win. Like no way. Not even with Martin 'the Dragon' Septim on his side.
But, the choice between the Nerevarine and Dovakhiin is more complicated... If we take the Nerevarine at his full power, with Keening, Sunder, and Wraithguard (but before he destroyed the Heart of Lorkhan), then I think the Nerevarine would, possibly, win.
But honestly, between those two, depending on the time during the game that the fight would take place, it could be a horribly unbalanced fight, or a completely even fight.